Good Morning,
As expected the NWRFC made but minor adjustments to its 120 day forecast, released yesterday:
The daily plot emphasizes the stability of the week on week forecasts:
Weather outlook is relatively unchanged, mild northwest temperatures on the west side and near normal precipitation across the hub:
California, on the other hand, is enjoying torrential rains and possible flooding across the golden state. Check out the Donneresque-like precip at Lake Tahoe:
That should be good for a 2-3 feet of snow at Heavenly, though much will come down cement-like. If you are looking for the good stuff go a few hundred miles east, to SLC, where you will find epic ski days:
The Cal reservoirs remain much below normal, forget about full, despite the plethora of wet days in Cally. The CVP is barely generating as most of the inflows are held back for other purposes. The run of the river plants, and there are many there, will be running at capacity, something not seen for awhile. The renewables reside clearly in the bull camp:
Not that the WECC needs the renewables as the overall outlook is modestly bearish. With normal precip in the northwest, floods in California, and moderate temperatures, there is not much to get excited about. Maybe thinking about taking off some Q2 length:
Both the forecast and the market have rallied from lows but with climo precip on the horizon coupled with reasonably healthy snow pack the trade starts to look less bullish, so does the Q3:
It’s early, for sure, but if you have length and snow pack builds you’ll regret holding – watch the weather forecast and watch for the Corps January flood control updates. Big drafts will be bearish for the balance of Q1 and bullish for Q2 while minimal drafts will have the opposite effect. Given current snow pack levels I’d suggest an April 15 draft to 1245 at GCL is in order but if the Corps buys into the El Nino story you might see 1260 and that would be Q2 bearish.
Mike