STP Update

Good Afternoon,

The NWRFC updated its 120-day forecast today at 2:45 pm. Our take on that forecast follows.

Monthly Energy

001-stp-mon

Energy Scorecard

  • Dec – down 250 aMW
  • Jan – up 50 aMW
  • Feb – up 450 aMW
  • Mar – down 300 aMW
  • Apr – down 300 aMW

A relatively modest change in their outlook, nothing appears egregiously bizarre.

Daily Energy

001-stp-day

The cuts towards the end of Dec are interesting; I guess that is about when they expect the recent big drafts will have passed. The cuts at the end of Feb seem particularly strange, especially when the 5-year average has never shown a cut. A more likely scenario is a smooth transition from around Feb 20 to Mar 15 but probably won’t see that until we get closer.

Year on year

001-stp-yoy

Nothing seems too crazy; the RFC is expecting Q1 to discharge a lot of water but not as much as 2014 (which was a much bigger water year than current). If anything, we’d expect more cuts, assuming average precip in the future.

Daily by Year

001-stp-doy

This plot compares the same week forecast in the past to this year’s, and we stand corrected, in each of the previous years, except for 2015, the RFC projected those sharp cuts at the end of Feb. Recall that 2015 was a drum gate year, no cuts. 2016 is increasingly looking eligible for drum gate work, as well. Also, note the levels 2016 is at versus the prior years, nearly every day is higher … does snow pack support?

Snow by Production Basin

001-snow

We don’t see it; contrast WY17 with 2014, not even in the same ballpark in the major basins (top 5).