Good Afternoon,
Here are a few highlights of what’s going on in the west today.
Water Supply
Grand Coulee has been slowly lowering the reservoir beginning on November 26th, and rapidly decreasing reserves coinciding with last week’s cold snap beginning on December 14th.
Grand Coulee reservoir currently sits at 88% capacity for Dec. 20th. This puts the current level well behind 2015 (93%) and 2014 (94%), and on par with 2013 (88%).
As Grand Coulee draws down a little faster than most years (for December), snow is beginning to pile up. Mid-C is sitting at 94% of normal, significantly ahead of the past two years. 94% is also a decent increase over the past several days as snow storms have blanketed the northwest.
Rockies and Great Basin are both pacing above 100% while PV has yet to show much snow at all as it sits at 14% for the 2017 snow year.
Demand
Mid-C loads have tapered off a bit from last week, though remain above last year’s demand with a difference of 2200 MW yesterday. Demand is also up week-over-week by nearly 1250 MW.
Temperatures
Burbank will have above-normal minimum temperatures for the rest of the month, and will peak on the 21st with 11 degrees above normal minimum temp (52 vs 41). The cold spell expected to hit on the 24th has been cut short as of today and should now stay above normal.
Sacramento won’t be as warm as Burbank, but it has also seeing a re-forecast bringing higher than normal minimum temps beginning on the 22nd. The 23rd is now forecasted 9 degrees warmer than what was predicted yesterday.
Most hubs are trending warmer day-over-day, though Great Basin and Mid-C remain below climo temps. Palo Verde shows the largest temperature anomaly with temps 3 degrees above normal.
The 10-Day River Forecast continues to forecast well above the STP forecast, especially for the next five days. The 10-day forecast is more than 1000 MW higher than the STP for Dec-20th.
Outages
Outages of all types, and particularly gas, have further decreased since the 16th. Total outages for the ISO sit at 2671 MW, down from a high of 7188 MW on the 9th of December.
Natural Gas
Natural Gas Nodes – Demand Daily
Gas Demand in Mid-C hit a month long high on the 17th at 2034 MMCF.
Renewables
Solar generation in SP15 had very high production the past several days, each of which registered above 5200 MW. Solar is expected to dip to 4500 MW for the next two days before again reaching above 5000 MW to close out the month.
Mid-C wind has the potential to hit a several week high today with a projected generation of over 4000 MW. Generation reached a week high yesterday at 2782 MW.
Transmission
Mid-C imported from NP briefly on the 16th during last week’s cold snap (hit a low of -295 MW at 2:00 PM). Imports lasted four hours, and flow has been slowly ramping back up ever since with a week-long high of 3019 MW on the 19th.
BC imported from Mid-C twice during last week’s Artic Express. The flow north reached a peak of 319 MW at 2:00 PM on the 17th, and was then followed by flow quickly moving south with a low of 2156 MW on the 18th.
Have a great rest of your week,
William