Good morning,
Winter is making a gradual move back into the Northwest over the next two weeks, particularly in the back-end of the forecast. California remains exempt for most of the next two weeks as should chart out above normal for most areas, especially those closer to the coast.
Most of the West is projecting a bone-dry forecast, at least relatively dry considering it’s January. Don’t expect significant snowfall in the Cascades or anywhere in California. Western Montana could be exempted from this forecast, though it remains on the margin of dry/wet.
SP-PV DA prices continue to show the most congestion this week as the two hubs have varied between $10-$20 for most of this week. SP-NP is much tighter with NP priced one to two dollars more during most peaks.
Crude climbed nearly a dollar higher yesterday and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down soon after finishing at $52.33.
Gas shed $0.06 yesterday to finish at $3.22 and reversing the sharp climb that was started on the 10th (at $2.98).
SP15 has dropped more than $1.50 over the last week from its February price. Mid-C is now just $0.20 from its pre-explosion price.
SP-15 gas demand sunk 360,000 MMCF yesterday, its largest single-day decline since December. Palo saw demand going the opposite direction following a 140,000 MMCF climb day-on-day.
Jackson Prairie storage has run in withdrawal territory every day since the 10th, including yesterday’s 361 MMCF deficit (though that’s less than the 580 MMCF withdrawal we saw on the 14th).
Mist is still injecting after adding 66 MMCF yesterday. We’ve seen injections, or at least no withdrawals, every day since Nov 29th.
Hydro
Mica is still setting new 10-year lows and has been since July, though it’s worth noting yesterday’s elevation was only a foot off from last year’s mark while remaining 20′ from average.
Many stations sit in the position that could allow a large storm to push them into the normal category, but for now, much of the west fall below 90%, or even 75% in the Central to Southern Cascades. Montana and Idaho lost ground on average over the past week without new snowfall.
Also worth noting the lack of low-level snowpack that we’d usually see at this time. Early season melts may not have much of an effect this year.
11 stations lost snowpack across the past seven days, but none more than Bonneville and its 0.82″. The Dalles and John Day saw 0.59″ and 0.46″ melt off their totals as well. Not a good week for snow along the Columbia Gorge.
On the flip side of that equation, we saw Flathead, Kootenai, and Cark Fork all notch at least 0.81″ week-on-week. That also means not a single station managed more 1.00″ of snow.
Most of Clark Fork’s snowfall over the past came within the first few days as the station sat mostly flat since the 10th. Despite the 3rd-most snow of the week, Clark Fork remains 2″ below average and trails last year’s totals by nearly 3.5″.
This is a peek at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates. We are seeing even more separation between the RFC and Ansergy forecast for Grand Coulee Apr-Sep.
NP Snowpack Anomaly by Station
Last week showed 9 of 36 stations at or above normal, but this week brings just 3 — Independence Camp, Buckskin Lower, and Css Lab (two of which are on the Truckee River). Not a good trend for snowpack in NP, especially on the Klamath River where Taylor Butte is reporting below 50% of normal.
Demand
Seattle will push north of normal for nearly hour from today until the 21st and will reach as high as 51 on the 17th, seven degrees above normal. Tonight’s low of 36 will set the floor for the remainder of the forecast.
Watch Portland late next week as it projects a high of 55 on the 23rd, potentially 10 degrees above normal.
Loads climbed 200 MW in Mid-C yesterday as the hub sat was blanketed in cooler weather, especially overnight where demand jumped 700 MW day-on-day.
NP peak demand saw small day-on-day growth yesterday but was mostly flat in the week-on-week comparison. Overnight loads increased 250 MW day-on-day, however.
San Jose isn’t breaking records in daily highs as most day sit at or a couple degrees below normal, but overnight temps are forecasting as high as 52 by the 17th, equal to eight degrees above normal. note the 23rd’s high of 67, also at eight degrees above normal.
SP peak demand fell just more than 600 MW by mid-day though overnight loads managed a 500 MW increase. Week-on-week loads were up more than 500 MW.
Cool temps over the next couple days will eventually lead into highs of 69 for both the 19th and 20th, as well as a return to 70’s on the 23rd. Highs won’t reach normal until then, but overnight lows might stay at or above normal for the foreseeable future.
Next week is maintaining a forecast of cooler temps as high fall 5+ degrees below normal in Phoenix. The rest of this week is marked by average highs and lows in the low-40’s over the weekend.
Fundamentals
All six nukes remain generating at 100% capacity though CGS dipped to 99% momentarily on the 13th.
SP-15 solar fell to just 1,333 MW on Monday and reached just 2,400 on Saturday, both among the lowest generation days of the year. Consistent 5,000+ MW days are not dependable as of late.
Mid-C wind is dependable if you are dependent upon sub-500 MW generation, at least as of this week. mid-C hasn’t seen wind top out above 450 MW since the 8th.
ISO gas outages were mostly flat yesterday after seeing just 19 MW return online. Outages have hovered around 3,000 MW for the past three days.
Transmission
While last week showed COI as unchanged through the forecast, this week differs in across every hour. Note the drop to 2,100 MW on the 18th, and the 300 MW increase on the 23rd. All other hours are spent 50 MW higher than last week’s projection.
NOB remains unchanged at 3,100 MW.
Have a great day,
William