Commentary

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Featured Commentary

(Originally posted on Ansergy – Mar 30, 2017)

Black And Blue

Good Morning,The Mid-C cash has found a new reality – single digits, the sign of BPA’s capitulation. In fact, that big brute is now drafting GCL despite much flooding on the very lowest part of the Columbia. It is evident to us that they anticipate a deeper draft than the 1235′ and most likely we’ll see Lake Roosevelt pulled to 1220′. All of which suggests there may not be much cash relief at Mid-C in the foreseeable future.  The short trade (and its derivatives) has run its course; now our eyes look towards buying and timing opportunities.

Demand

Weather is warm in the south and mild in the north which is somewhat bullish in the former and very much bearish in the latter.

One day, out about 10 ten days, Phoenix spikes to 96, a genuinely warm and bullish day, but it’s so far out in the forecast we stand a better chance of seeing Trump cancel his twitter account than that weather be realized.

We need to add a sixth city to the California weather; I’m leaning towards Bakersfield. California is warm, not hot; loads may trickle up, they won’t explode. What will happen, with this general warming, is the snow will melt faster than it has of late, though we doubt that matters much as nearly every hydro plant in CA is at hydraulic capacity.

Weather is expected to be slightly below normal in the load centers and slightly above average in the hydro producing regions. Call that a mixed bag, maybe you get an extra 500 aMW of I-5 new load and another 100 kcfs flowing past Longview, WA. New water, incremental flows, don’t matter much since most plants in the Northwest are at capacity.

Loads across the WECC are mostly just ugly, but week on week they are the ugliest at the Mid-C; the Great Basin saw a slight rally, but that bump is easily lost in the Mid-C hydro noise.

Check out the lows at Lake Tahoe – a week straight of below freezing. The low-level snow is melting, but 4000′ and up is not. Palm Springs basked in the low 90s, higher than Phoenix. Kalispell had a string of nights over freezing; it’s not hot but warm enough to continue melting snow. More on that interesting subject in the Hydro section.

Hydro

The Northwest is projected to have another wet week, and even NP15 gets douched.

It has been a while since we’ve seen Northern Cal get more than an inch, this isn’t one of those epic dam-busting storms, just more hydro pain in a region that already has plenty of that.

The 1.5″ at Boise caught our eye, most of that is coming from the NP15 system. Also worthy of acknowledgment is the near 1″ at Kalispell, which is 2X more than normal. The hydro producing regions are expected to receive nearly as much rain as the load centers which is really good news since I live in the load center and we’ve grown incredibly weary of the relentless WY17 rain.

Several of the rivers in the Golden State have realized dramatic drops – all of those are a result of the state’s cooler weather which is changing to warmer. Those drops will be replaced by rallies as things return to normal, or even above normal.

BC is a tale of two rivers. The Kootenai at Ft. Steele has fallen off of a cliff while the Cheakamus rallied. The warming trend in the Rockies should get the Kootenai fired back up, and the BC Cascades are set to explode, as are the rivers in the US Cascades.

The Spokane, Salmon, and Deschutes have all dropped over the last week while the Wenatchee and Skagit are rallying. The latter two are WA Cascade basins and are sitting on massive amounts of snow. The Wenatchee is a member of our Sideflow Index for the Mid-Columbia basins, take a look at how this index typically behaves during runoff:

We use this index as a “runoff” barometer; when it crests so has the Mid-C runoff. It is barely registering; last year it peaked in April which rendered those delicious May LL buys for the patient trader. The long side will become the next great trade at Mid-C, it is just a matter of when and where. One big difference between this and last year are the SWE volumes; the current year is substantially bigger than last. That probably means larger peak runoff which lasts longer, and is also delayed. Delayed because of the Ice Chest Factor – the more snow cover, the slower the melt; rocks and branches retain heat, snow not so much. So the more ground exposure, the faster the melt, there is a lot of snow on the hills which suggests a slower melt.

The Northwest regulated projects are not being regulated anymore, Coulee is a case in point.

That project looks more like the Cosumnes in California than the largest storage project in the USA. Run of River as Coulee runs the MdiC price into the muddy ground. How often have you seen such a shapeless curve as the above? Also, note the 40kcfs spill – hopefully they turn on that laser light show, must be quite a sight.

And BPA woke up to the fact it is a pretty big water year; now they are drafting Coulee, Hungry Horse, and Libby. I guess keeping gas on the margin is no longer on the agenda. We suspect the Feds will continue to pull down Coulee all through April as they now realize a 1220′ reservoir target is necessary.

We love this USGS map; it is an instantaneous summary of 100s of stations across the USA, this is the western version. Black is at record-level, green is normal, brown/red dry. The Northwest is black and blue, the northwest prices are black and blue, too; and anyone foolish enough to carry length into this veritable meltdown is looking at their book and seeing red everywhere and is probably feeling black and blue. We’re glad we were short, we see black, but it’s in our PNL.

Before leaving Hydro, we’d like to take a look at snow as in Inches of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). Most of the northwest enjoyed a build, week on week, which is why many of the rivers above Coulee saw declines in stream flows. Big water year, right?

Not really, its big on the west side where it doesn’t’ really matter, but in the meat of the production it is just another solid water year. Take a gander at this  NRCS map:

Big on the west side, big on the Snake, and kind of big on the Flathead, but not that big anywhere else. Contrast SWE with PRE:

Wet everywhere, way more prominent pre-wise than swe. Someone asked why our water supply #s were lower than the RFCs:

We suspect they have a larger bias towards pre than we, not sure on that.

TransGen

Noms are a bore; not much is going on in the land of thermal. So are outages:

SP has a slight uptick while ZP and NP are nearly non-existent; Transmission flows are a snoozer too:

The Mid-C will sell power to anyone; we think if Putin offered to buy a few Gigs Trump would sign off on it.

Nat Gas (Futures) has been on a roll of late:

Up nearly $0.50 in a month, but we sure don’t see that in the WECC spot markets:

PG&E Citygate is up a miserly $0.14, not a hub comes close to the Nymex. All of which is indicate of how bearish WECC is at the moment. That too shall pass, some day.

Conclusions

  • April
    • Light load at Palo and SP have been destroyed, forget Mid-C, its so low not worth the VAR
      • SP -short on:off
      • PV -short on:off; the nuke is coming down soon
      • Mid-C – hard to buy MidC on peak, even with the selloff; water is increasing, loads are either sideways or falling
        • SHORT
  • May
      • Similar sell-offs in the LL
        • MidC – short the On:OFF
        • Let’s look at rolls in the south:
          • Contract highs in both PV and SP for the May-April
            • FADE, long APril, short May
  • June
      • Short the SP:PV at negative; the nuke will be back, maybe the hydro inside SP will abate by then (maybe not, too).

Commentary Samples

 

  • Silver Lining  Wed, Mar-01 : The glass is half full, bright side, silver linings in dark clouds …these are all euphemisms for a cheery outlook regardless of reality…
  • Flood Control Update Fri, Feb-10 : The news that wasn’t news yesterday was the news that the Corps will draft Coulee to a miserly 1252′ by the end of April…
  • Sep Sans Spill[L] Fri, Sep-2 : Good Morning, Weather remains cool across most of the west, cool and dry.  The biggest fundamental change noted today is the loss of the Mid-C spill, an event that will add …
  • Product Update: EIM Energy & Cash Flows[L] Thu, Sep-1 : Good Afternoon, Ansergy has updated its EIM reports by incorporating the energy and cash flows for the three EIM participants (Nevada Power (NEV), PacEast (PACE), and PacWest (PACW).  You can find the …
  • Dysfunction Junction Thu, Sep-1 : Good Morning, This is just a short post on the EIM market yesterday …take a look: Cal ISO – 5 Minute Ticks Yes, you did read that right, $1894/mwh at 15:50; almost like …
  • Slip Sliding Outta Summer[L] Wed, Aug-31 : Good Morning, EIM’s are up a tick or two, day on day, reflecting the relatively warm weather in the LA Basin: Well, more than a tick, up $7.00 over yesterday at the …
  • STP Update[L] Mon, Aug-29 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day projections at 2:45 pm today and brought no surprises … more energy in the front and haircuts to the back. Monthly Energy Energy Scorecard BOM – …
  • Weak Week[L] Mon, Aug-29 : Good Morning, If it feels like summer is over you probably live in the northwest where the weather has cooled and chances of rain are high; not that it is very hot …
  • We’re Baaack![L] Thu, Aug-25 : Good Morning, Not a lot has changed from our Monday post, except for the fact that three days of BOM have expired at weak prices and the outlook for next week …
  • Ebb Tide[L] Mon, Aug-22 : Good Morning, All good things come to an end, usually too soon, and so has the western power markets bullish run; it has come to an end with a thud as …
  • Product Update – ISO Outages[L] Sun, Aug-21 : Greetings, Ansergy has added four new reports centered around the ISO’s unit level outages. We have been using this data within our forecasts but found the information equally useful in and …
  • Friday Update[L] Fri, Aug-19 : Good Morning, The northwest realizes its temperature highs for the summer while the rest of the WECC cools off.   Perhaps the most interesting report inside Ansergy today is the River …
  • Final Hurrah?[L] Wed, Aug-17 : Good Morning, The kids are starting to sweat, school is just days away, and so are the summer longs as there are but a few days left before summer has any …
  • Product Update – EIM Markets[L] Tue, Aug-16 : Good Afternoon, Ansergy has added a new Markets report to its product offering that reports the 5 Minute ticks from the ISO.  The data is useful for viewing real-time changes within …
  • STP Update[L] Mon, Aug-15 : Good Afternoon, The folks in Portland have updated their 120 day forecast …. here is our take Monthly Energy Energy Scorecard Aug – Down 400 MW Sep – Down 200 MW, that is a modest …
  • Mighty MidC[L] Mon, Aug-15 : Good Morning, The hub we’ve all come to hate, and occasionally love, is showing signs of a resurgence off of tight water and cooling degree days.  Before delving into the whys …
  • Product Update – Weather Actuals[L] Fri, Aug-12 : Good Afternoon, Ansergy has added a new set of reports around actual weather metrics as we are a big fan of knowing what has happened and believe the past is one of the better indicators …
  • Building[L] Fri, Aug-12 : Good Morning, Heat is building, yet loads are slow to react, at least everywhere but NP15.  As this may very well be summer’s last hurrah let us focus on the temperature …
  • Summer Is Coming[L] Wed, Aug-10 : Good Morning, Heat in the north, hotter than in our Monday update, and more rain in the deserts and cooler temperatures, while the ISO gets warmer …all should make for some …
  • Product Update – EIA Nat Gas Reports[L] Tue, Aug-9 : Good Afternoon, In the course of building out the nat gas basis forecasts we are compiling various data types which are needed for the forecasts.  Gas nomination data was one type (40+ …
  • STP Update[L] Mon, Aug-8 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast at 1:43 pm PDT and delivered as expected: The front is up while paid for in the back, though the overall forecast is …
  • Socal Thoughts[L] Mon, Aug-8 : Good Morning, Weather is mild, hints of some heat in places, rain in Phoenix (lots of rain) and a strong bom market, price-wise.  Lots to cover today but let’s start with …
  • Convictionless[L] Fri, Aug-5 : Good Morning, Before diving into our thoughts on the term market I’d like to share with you a look back to July 2016’s degree days: Sorted by anomaly (current vs 10 year …
  • Choppy[L] Wed, Aug-3 : Good Morning, LMP market tanked of late as did degree days  and loads: Those were impressive highs, at least relative to this year, but how do they fare compared to markets of …
  • STP Update[L] Mon, Aug-1 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC shot out a new update to its 120 day forecast (STP) at 2:43 pm PDT today.  No big surprises as to be expected; it’s the dog days …
  • Not Pretty[L] Mon, Aug-1 : Good Morning, Nothing looks real bullish in the near-term though there are hints of heat next week there are but facts of below normal temperatures for this week.  The only bullish …
  • Respite[L] Fri, Jul-29 : Good Morning, Yes, the west looks forward to a brief respite from the heat; funny thing is it wasn’t that hot this week but was hot enough for the LMPs to …
  • Product Update – Power Plant Gas Noms Wed, Jul-27 : Good Afternoon, Ansergy now has about 40 pipeline scrapes running, most (about 95%) have at least three years of data.  The last 7 days of raw data can be accessed here: Last 7 …
  • A Little Help From Our Friends[L] Wed, Jul-27 : Good Morning, The LMPs soared, despite lower demand at Socal and Palo, off of big rallies at Nocal and MidC.  Didn’t someone suggest that might happen earlier this week?   Granted …
  • STP Update[L] Mon, Jul-25 : Good Afternoon, Our friends at the NWRFC updated their weekly 120 day hydro outlook and it is as exactly as we said this morning …. “and suggests that we’ll see bumps …
  • August Update[L] Mon, Jul-25 : Good Morning, Most interesting LMP market yesterday: Interesting because: Very high prices despite softening loads and falling on a Sunday Congestion all but disappeared Give all the credit to NP15 as the northern portion of …
  • Scorcher[L] Fri, Jul-22 : Good Morning, I didn’t intent to write today, was going fishing, still might if it quits raining (LOL, its pouring like it was mid-November here in the middle of Puget Sound). …
  • California Dreamin'[L] Thu, Jul-21 : Good Morning, Socal loads are soaring and the temperatures are rallying while the rest of the WECC slumbers along in a cool weather-induced trance.   LMPs say the same thing in …
  • Heat Update[L] Tue, Jul-19 : Good Morning, Just a short post on the situation in Socal – temperatures have realized a material build in the south versus yesterday’s forecast while the north has actually cooled: Burbank, CA The …
  • STP Update[L] Mon, Jul-18 : Good Afternoon, Today’s STP holds no surprises as the front was cut and everything else basically unchanged. Monthly Energy Energy Scorecard July – down 250 MW August – up 230 MW Sept – unchanged Oct – up …
  • Bullish, even at MidC[L] Mon, Jul-18 : Good Morning, That resurgence we spoke of late last week surged to fruition over the weekend and realized a $4-5 rally, week on week, in Sunday’s Day Ahead LMPs: Congestion all but disappeared at …
  • Product Update – California Gas Reports[L] Fri, Jul-15 : Good Afternoon, Ansergy has released another gas report, what we are calling California Gas, which is made up of content from Southern California Gas and PG&E’s informational postings.  These two LDCs …
  • Resurgence[L] Fri, Jul-15 : Good Morning, Yes, there is a resurgence of bullishness taking hold of the WECC, many signs of this, even at the red-headed step child of west power, Mid-C.   This week’s …
  • Warming Trend[L] Wed, Jul-13 : Good Morning, The WECC outlook in the heart of summer is almost always about temperatures; if they are high volatility and prices soar; if low, just the opposite.  The west becomes …
  • STP Update – Bearish BOM[L] Mon, Jul-11 : Good Afternoon, As expected the amount of bom water is higher in today’s STP than last week’s following the feds 2:44 pm (PDT) update today.  There is not a lot of …
  • Shade Less Shady[L] Mon, Jul-11 : Good Morning, Where the fundies looked weak to real weak going out last week this week they look less weak but not necessarily insanely bullish either.  Before delving into the state …
  • Gas Nominations[L] Fri, Jul-8 : There is a saying that gas drives power and power drives gas and we don’t disagree.  Gas traders/hedgers need to know what is happening in the power world, especially in …
  • Hints of Something[L] Thu, Jul-7 : Good Morning, As we desperately scan the fundamental horizon seeking something important, something brash and alarming, anything that will fill up today’s post, I believe we found a few things.  There, that …
  • STP Updated[L] Tue, Jul-5 : Good Afternoon, The River Forecast center has updated its 120 day outlook for northwest rivers this afternoon.  It isn’t much of an update, but sometimes the fact that there is no …
  • Fifth of July[L] Tue, Jul-5 : Good Morning, Where there were hints of possible heat going out Friday there is just smoldering fireworks that didn’t go off, just duds that didn’t light and prices that didn’t rise: LMP …
  • Friday Update[L] Fri, Jul-1 : Good Morning, Weakness everywhere, though some hints of heat beyond ten days, for the next week not much to get excited, or long, about.  The LMP markets have steadily dropped since …
  • Fizzled Fourth[L] Wed, Jun-29 : Good Morning, The last remnant of heat over the Fourth of July weekend has been obliterated in today’s forecast; and if that isn’t bad enough  now it is going to rain …
  • Bearish STP[L] Mon, Jun-27 : Good Afternoon, Our friends in Portland have whipsawed themselves, once again, and in doing so have rained on the mid-c longs parade, at least those longs who care about STP,  but …
  • A Touch Cooler[L] Mon, Jun-27 : Good Morning, LMPs were strong to real strong over the weekend, we think because the net demand outlook has grown more bullish in the north even though the south has suffered …
  • More Heat[L] Thu, Jun-23 : Good Morning, The next round of big demand is WECC-wide, unlike earlier this week where the north remained relatively cool while the south was an inferno.  This go-round the WECC will …
  • The Non-Event[L] Tue, Jun-21 : Good Morning, I think the LMP markets say it best: Oh my, a dud!  Yesterday was supposed to be the grand finale of WECC energy fireworks, instead the fuse was lit but …
  • STP Update – New Shenanigans[L] Mon, Jun-20 : Good Afternoon The NWRFC completed its 120 day forecast of northwest rivers just now.  Ansergy converts the flows to energy and generates several week on week reports of this data. Monthly STP …
  • The Event[L] Mon, Jun-20 : Good Morning, All eyes are focused on LA as the valleys realize  triple digit temperatures.  Yesterday was hot, the LMPs soared in the southern sectors, not so much anywhere else: LMPs Most impressive …
  • Out of BOM[L] Thu, Jun-16 : Good Morning, Next week’s heat wave has weakened in Palo and strengthened in the ISO and the market has rallied the BOM everywhere: Has the market rallied enough?  Or has the market …
  • Heat Wave Update[L] Tue, Jun-14 : Good Morning, I wasn’t planning on doing a post today but, after looking at the temp forecasts, changed my mind.  Starting with Phoenix, which realized a build over yesterday: A couple relevant points …
  • STP Update – BOM BEAR[L] Mon, Jun-13 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast (STP) at 1:40 pm today and it is bearish for bom and neutral the rest: Monthly Energy Scorecard: June – up 1100 MW July – down …
  • Heat Tests[L] Mon, Jun-13 : Good Morning, A new test is developing for the WECC; a heat event that may set highs for the summer, some of which spills into the business days.  Even the northwest …
  • Friday Update[L] Fri, Jun-10 : Good Morning, There is nothing really new to report, the northwest is cool today, will stay cool into next week, while  the southwest is hot and will get very hot late …
  • BOM Thoughts and Other Ramblings[L] Wed, Jun-8 : Good Morning, Northwest cools down a lot, so does the ISO, but the southwest remains an oven set on broil.  The northwest, in addition to below normal temperatures, will have its air …
  • STP Update – #Yawn#[L] Mon, Jun-6 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC has updated the 120 day forecast just now (4:25 pm) and its not much of a change: Monthly Energy Energy Scorecard June – Down 280 MW July – Up 30 MW August …
  • Weekend Recap Mon, Jun-6 : Good Morning, It’s final!  The first heat wave of the summer arrived, left, and the lights remained glowing in LA.  True, it wasn’t much of a heat wave in California but …
  • Next Week & Beyond Fri, Jun-3 : Good Morning, We are amidst summer’s first heat wave, let’s see how the system is handling things: LMPs Peak prices are up $15.00 from Tuesday but given the rallies in loads it seems …
  • Weekend Woes[L] Thu, Jun-2 : Good Morning, WECC heat builds and extends, but the hottest days fall on the weekend which will stifle much of the volatility it may have otherwise delivered.  Still it is a …
  • STP Update – Big Cuts in June and July[L] Tue, May-31 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day stream flow outlook and Ansergy updated its 120 day hydro energy outlook accordingly.  The new STP holds no major surprises; the trend demonstrated …
  • Hotter Than Hades[L] Tue, May-31 : Good Morning, We just may get our first test of Aliso Canyon this week as temperatures in Socal have rallied into the mid 90s; temperatures everywhere in the WECC are up, …
  • The Rising Tide[L] Fri, May-27 : Good Morning Buffet once said the market is like a rising tide which raises all ships meaning a bullish sentiment can be contagious.  The bullish stars are aligning for June and perhaps, …
  • Aliso Canyon Impacts on Summer Markets Thu, May-26 : Good Morning, Several of our clients have asked us our opinion on what Aliso Canyon means for western power markets.  We had no opinion because we had not thought through what …
  • MidWeek Update[L] Wed, May-25 : Good Morning We looked hard to find something to get excited about and fell asleep in the process.  Not really, there are glimmers of bullish hope out there if you look …
  • STP Update – June Mauled[L] Mon, May-23 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC delivered (at 3:43 pm pdt) as expected this afternoon as in delivered a boat-load of energy to June, like 1700 aMW, thereby reversing about six weeks of …
  • Monday’s Chilly Outlook[L] Mon, May-23 : Good Morning, It is chilly in the WECC, most hubs are realizing temperatures well below normal and loads have taken a pounding and so has the LMP market, which is off …
  • Weak Cash Outlook[L] Thu, May-19 : Good Morning, Weather turns downright nasty across the WECC led by Phoenix plunging to a bone chilling 86 and Burbank seeing highs in the 60s.  MidC appears to be in a …
  • STP Update – Bullish[L] Tue, May-17 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC released its weekly 120 day guidance this afternoon and, as expected, this update is quite bullish for the Mid-C. Monthly Energy Those cuts in the 10 day providing a …
  • Nuking 3 Nukes Worth[L] Tue, May-17 : Good Morning, The NWRFC is busy shedding energy, too busy to update the STP, I guess: Shucks, that is a cut for the ages …3300 MW in just a week and bodes …
  • Reset the Reset?[L] Mon, May-16 : Good Morning, The weekend LMP plot says it all: Back to the negatives, and you thought those days were in the past; they aren’t quite yet, the system is still flush with hydro energy and …
  • Cooling Trend Blowing In[L] Thu, May-12 : Good Morning, Weather turns wetter and cooler in the northwest and just cooler in the south, plus big wind blows through MidC in the middle of next week, all of which …
  • Product Update – Sideflow Indexes[L] Wed, May-11 : Good Afternoon, We have added four new sideflow indexes to our Rivers Reports.  These indexes are pure natural river flows and are useful for gauging the status of the runoff.  We …
  • Mid Week Update – Subtle Strenghtening[L] Wed, May-11 : Good Morning, Return to hot weather in the southwest, still relatively mild in California, and still warmer than it should be in the northwest; and pretty much dry everywhere.  We see …
  • STP Update – Bullish BOM, even more Bullish August[L] Mon, May-9 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast at 2:43 pm pdt.  Most of the changes occur in whats left of May and August, the latter coming as a big …
  • Blustery Weekend[L] Mon, May-9 : Good Morning, The wind howled in the northwest and the LMP market took a dive; temperature outlooks return to normals in the south, for a while, and stay warm in the …
  • Reset?[L] Fri, May-6 : Good Morning, We are amidst a torrid MidC bull run, no one can or should dispute that, and a more modest bullish turn for the other three traded WECC hubs.  Ansergy …
  • June Outlook[L] Wed, May-4 : Good Morning, Yesterday’s loads were up in the south but are slated to decline with cooler temperatures; the wet weather in NP has held mostly, off 0.2″ in today’s forecast; northwest …
  • BOM Outlook[L] Tue, May-3 : Good Morning, Cash had a good rally yesterday, especially at the Mid-C in the off peak, where it settled in the 12s following last week’s surreal price of $0.10.  Credit a dearth …
  • STP Update – Bearish front/Bullish back[L] Mon, May-2 : Good Afternoon, It’s Monday and that can only mean another installment of STP to further your enjoyment and you will enjoy this week’s chapter if you are short BOM and long …
  • To Be or Not to Be[L] Mon, May-2 : Good Morning, Inexplicably the ISO pulled off a strong weekend LMP-wise: The rally can’t be explained by loads, those are soft, but perhaps the renewables deserves  much of the credit: There simply wasn’t any …
  • Hasta la vista April Fri, Apr-29 : Good Morning, April is now one for the history books and what an interesting history lesson it was, what with drum gate maintenance, early drafts, massive CDD anomalies (north and south) …
  • Mid-Week Update – Adendum[L] Wed, Apr-27 : Left off this report: NWRFC 10 Day vs STP Worthy of pointing out that the RFC has cut about 3000 MW from its 10 day flow forecast for next week.  Interesting that …
  • Mid Week Update – Warmer[L] Wed, Apr-27 : Good Morning, The news of the day is MidC grows warmer, like real warm, and the warmth lasts longer, like a few days longer, all of which means another surge of …
  • Water Year Sensitivities – A Real Life Example[L] Tue, Apr-26 : Good Afternoon, Today we shall stray off the reservation, but before we commence down that path let me just say that the fundamentals have turned warmer in the north which is …
  • STP Update – Sideways[L] Mon, Apr-25 : Good Afternoon, Today’s STP (published at 2:43 pm pdt) is mostly a confirmation of last week’s with just modest changes in the total energy. Monthly Monthly Energy Changes April – Down 200 amw May – Up …
  • Another Bearish Monday Update[L] Mon, Apr-25 : Good Morning, Weekend ISO prices were a train wreck driven by massive northwest hydro and blustery wind and loads that fell all of which sets this week up for a rather …
  • Product Update – Water Year Scenarios[L] Sun, Apr-24 : Greetings, Ansergy has replaced its El Nino centric water year studies with what we are calling the “Water Scenarios” reports. I liked the El Nino reports but after getting burned on dry …
  • Product Update – Switch to STP & New History Sun, Apr-24 : Good Morning, We have made a change to our hydro assumptions for the northwest by incorporating the NWRFC STP flow data into the Ansergy 120 day forecast. Changing from our internal …
  • State of the State[L] Fri, Apr-22 : Good Morning, Seems the forward market rally took a pause over the last couple of days for most hubs as everyone catches their breath before the roller coaster starts up again. …
  • Long Aint Wrong, til it aint[L] Wed, Apr-20 : Good Morning, Yesterday’s MidC cash market rally caught us by surprise; the hub’s within the throes of a heat-induced runoff surge and both on and off rally: Big water is supposed to …
  • Hot & Dry[L] Tue, Apr-19 : Good Afternoon, I have just a short update today, most of what needed to be said was written yesterday, but a few additional comments on the status of the market are …
  • STP Update[L] Mon, Apr-18 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast (STP) at 3:24 pm pdt today and oh boy, it is chock full of nuts, err should say chock full of energy, …
  • Monday Observations[L] Mon, Apr-18 : Good Morning, One of the more interesting item I stumbled over in reviewing this morning’s fundamentals was the lack of ISO congestion over the weekend, not to mention SP trading over NP …
  • Getting Uglier[L] Fri, Apr-15 : Good Morning, Bad title, “Getting Uglier”, but hard to come up with a more appropriate one given the state of the northern WECC.  Let’s start with weather as that driver will drive …
  • Off is the new On[L] Wed, Apr-13 : Good Morning, Lot’s of anomalies out there but let’s start with yesterday’s SP LMP trading higher in the off peak than on.  Over the last five years this has occurred 2.3% of …
  • April Flood Control – Minor Change[L] Tue, Apr-12 : Good Morning, The Corps updated its April flood control guidelines this morning; mostly a modest change: The biggest changes to draft will be at Dworshak (25.9 feet deeper) and Libby (10.4 feet). …
  • STP Update – Quite The Bearish Turn[L] Mon, Apr-11 : Good Afternoon, Our friends in Portland decided to open the spill gates on April water such that BOM is now projected to be the peak of WY16.  Where we thought last …
  • Monday Update – Spilling & Melting[L] Mon, Apr-11 : Good Morning, Weather turns warmer and dryer for most hubs following a cool weekend while Palo lost a nuke and MidC lost the equivalent of two nukes due to the commencement …
  • Friday Update[L] Fri, Apr-8 : Good Afternoon, The northwest heat wave has been warmer and lasted longer than expected and, consequently, has melted more snow than originally thought resulting in stronger natural river flows and a …
  • Market Update[L] Thu, Apr-7 : Good Morning, Not to be a rumor monger but we’ve heard hints that the Corps’ work on Coulee’s drumgates may end a few days early.  This has some interesting implications for …
  • Tuesday’s STP – Post-Feinting Comments[L] Wed, Apr-6 : Hi Again, The NWRFC released a update to its Monday STP that is worthy of a few comments.  Let’s start by looking at the two releases: Daily Energy – Monday Daily Energy – …
  • Wednesday Outlook – Unchanged to a bit more Bullish[L] Wed, Apr-6 : Good Morning, Several interesting developments to report today beginning with a robust precipitation outlook … in the south. Precip Forecast – Hub Composite Summary You won’t see anything like what is in the …
  • STP Update – Apr 4 revised[L] Tue, Apr-5 : NOTE: we misstated that there would be zero draft in April; there will be a 8-10 foot draft on Coulee to 1244′; we meant to say we did not believe …
  • Monday Update[L] Mon, Apr-4 : Good morning Weather forecasts have turned wetter and generally warmer.  The ten million dollar question is whether it is so warm that the west’s 2016 runoff will kick off weeks earlier …
  • Wednesday Fundamentals[L] Wed, Mar-30 : Good Morning, Warm and dry weather continue to be the news of the day; warmer and dryer than Monday’s outlook.  Loads appear to be picking up across the WECC and river …
  • STP Update – Bearish Front/Slightly Bullish Back[L] Tue, Mar-29 : Good Morning, The NWRFC updated the weekly 120 day forecast this morning, apparently they were too buried in Easter related festivities to publish on Monday.  The forecast has the front 50 …
  • Monday Update – Mixed Signals[L] Mon, Mar-28 : Good Morning, Warm weather coupled with a general drying trend is our outlook for this week.  Warm weather in the south should push up loads while that same weather in the north …
  • Product Update – Wind Speed[L] Sat, Mar-26 : Greetings, Ansergy has added several new wind stations to our scrapes and remapped wind production to those stations.  We are also using a new algorithm to convert mph to mwh based upon …
  • Product Updates – Run Times, & Data Inventory[L] Sat, Mar-26 : Greetings, Ansergy added three new items to the product; two are administrative and one is a change to our forecast methodology for wind.  This update is on the Admin changes. Administrative Changes …
  • Friday Fundamentals[L] Fri, Mar-25 : Good Morning, The west is cooling and growing dryer; loads are weakening as are natural river flows.  Pretty much the same news as Wednesday’s update, but no change is new news …
  • Fundy Update – Choppy Waters[L] Wed, Mar-23 : Good Morning, Spot markets were pounded on Monday and rallied (NP and SP) back on Tuesday.  The LMP chart captures this move: Seven hours of sub-$10 prices on Sunday and Monday crushed Tuesday’s day ahead, …
  • STP Update – Neutral[L] Mon, Mar-21 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC released this week’s 120 day forecast at 2:44 pm PDT, a touch later than usual.  The forecast holds no surprises which is somewhat of a surprise. Monthly Energy BOM …
  • Spring has Sprung[L] Mon, Mar-21 : Good Morning, A new season, perhaps a new outlook, perhaps not.  BOM is soon to expire as did Winter over the weekend, but it may not go out without a fight. …
  • Friday Fundamentals[L] Fri, Mar-18 : Good Afternoon, Back to the basics, back to fundamentals, starting with our forecast for next week: Everywhere is up, just a bit, and mostly driven by an upward drifting gas price, though …
  • Q2 Mid-C Outlook – Still Bullish[L] Thu, Mar-17 : Good Morning, Today’s commentary shall take a different tact, I shall stray from the norm of recapping weather and other fundamentals.  Not that those aren’t important, they are, but I’d rather talk …
  • Market Commentary – Bal Week[L] Tue, Mar-15 : Good Morning, Things have taken a slightly bullish turn over the last couple of days which is not too hard to conceive given that the WECC has been realizing some of …
  • STP Update – Bearish[L] Mon, Mar-14 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast today at 2:24 pm, PDT and can be construed as bearish. Monthly Energy (aMW): Balance of March was the only month to realize a …
  • Market Update[L] Mon, Mar-14 : Good Morning, Was a wild and windy weekend in the Northwest as the last remnants of a two week long storm blew through leaving thousands without power and mountains with more …
  • Product Update – 80 New Transmission Lines[L] Fri, Mar-11 : Good Morning, We have added over 90 new transmission lines to our actual transmission flows reports (Fundamentals/Transmission/BA Flows).  This hourly data is derived from the EIA’s Electric System Operating feed and is updated …
  • Market Update[L] Thu, Mar-10 : Good Morning, Mostly choppy news but there are a few interesting nuggets out there, starting with the weather forecast: Hub-Level Composite Weather Forecasts MidC is dryer, off about a 1/4″ over the next …
  • Flood Control Update – 1244′[L] Wed, Mar-9 : Good Afternoon, The Corps of Engineers updated the March Flood Control Guidelines this afternoon.  The new draft target is now 1244′ by April 30, or an additional 9′ from April 10 …
  • Product Update – Weather Min/Max/Avg[L] Wed, Mar-9 : Good Afternoon, Ansergy added three fields, Min, Max, and Average, to the weather summary report.  This change puts the current weather into perspective as far as the recent past; all new …
  • Market Update[L] Wed, Mar-9 : Good Morning, Fundamentals are choppy; still wet for the next five days (NP & MidC) while loads are drifting sideways. Hub Level Composite Temperature and Precipitation Forecast: WECC Hourly Loads – Last 8 …
  • Product Update – Balancing Authority Demand[L] Tue, Mar-8 : Good Morning, Ansergy now tracks 100% of the actual demand for all of the WECC, updated hourly.  This data comes from the EIA’s US Electric Operating System data set.   The reports include …
  • STP Update[L] Mon, Mar-7 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC released its 120 day forecast today at 2: 24 pm.  The forecast increased energy across the curve: Monthly STP Energy BOM is up 3,500 aMW; April up 3,000; and …
  • Monday Outlook[L] Mon, Mar-7 : Good Afternoon, I heard something on the evening news that caught me by surprise.  Seattle is two inches away from becoming the wettest winter on record as measured from Oct 1 …
  • Model Update – 2016 Fish Operating Plan[L] Fri, Mar-4 : Good Afternoon, Effective immediately the Ansergy spill forecasts will reflect the recently released 2016 Fish Operating Plan.  The plan is identical to 2015 but our model will now go from normal …
  • Epic Storm and an April Outlook[L] Fri, Mar-4 : Good Morning, While half the market frolics on the Banff slopes (WSPP) the rest of us stare in awe at the massive precip event slamming into the west coast. Composite Hub Precip Forecast The …
  • Market Update – Mixed Signals[L] Wed, Mar-2 : Good Morning, A couple of things jumped out as I reviewed the daily fundamentals; let’s start with weather. Composite Hub Level Weather California is teed up to get slammed with perhaps the biggest …
  • STP Update & Q2 Bullish Comments[L] Tue, Mar-1 : Good Morning, The NWRFC rolled out a new STP though they may as well skipped this week since the changes were immaterial.  However no news is news in and of itself and no …
  • Monday Update – Wetter, Slightly Cooler[L] Mon, Feb-29 : Good Morning, The outlook for across the WECC is cooler and wetter today than last Friday, though it is wetter than it is cooler. Composite Weather Summary by Power Hub: Though much of that …
  • Friday Update[L] Fri, Feb-26 : Good Morning, The news today is not new … wetter and warmer … is it getting old to hear the same thing over and over? Composite Hub Weather Mid-C is the wettest it’s …
  • Thoughts on the Mid-C Near-Term Markets[L] Tue, Feb-23 : Good Morning, My lucky day; a client inquired earlier this morning about our thoughts on May Mid-C.  After completing my reply I realized I had just wrote today’s blog … so …
  • STP Update – Small Cuts[L] Mon, Feb-22 : Good Afternoon The NWRFC released this week’s STP forecast at 2:24 pm pst.  As expected the energy component associated with this week’s forecast was lower than last week. STP – Monthly Energy …
  • Monday’s Fundamentals – A Mixed Bag[L] Mon, Feb-22 : Good Morning, I spent part of my weekend looking at the Ansergy forecast as compared to the market and was struck by how hard everything has sold off.  Blame some of …
  • Product Update – New Forecast Views[L] Fri, Feb-19 : Good Afternoon, Ansergy is pleased to announce that several new forecast reports were added to the service.  We call the new reports “Forecast Views” and can be accessed from the Forecast …
  • Market Update – Hints of Less Bearishness[L] Thu, Feb-18 : Good Morning, It is with great pleasure that today I announce NOT wetter and warmer in the weather outlook; no it is cooler and dryer.  Before delving into the fundies let’s …
  • STP Update – Slightly Lower[L] Tue, Feb-16 : Good Afternoon, The River Forecast Center completed its weekly update of the 120 day flow forecast for the northwest.  Changes were modest and mostly lower across the forecast. Daily STP The week on …
  • Monday Update[L] Mon, Feb-15 : Good Afternoon, General tone of today’s fundamentals are slightly bearish in the north and perhaps a slight touch bullish in the south.  First, let’s discuss Ansergy’s price forecasts, then we will …
  • Model Update – Cal Hydro[L] Sun, Feb-14 : Good Afternoon, Ansergy implemented two changes over the weekend: Added more Hydro Stations to California – this change provides more resolution to the hydro energy forecast for California and has resulted in …
  • Product Update – Trade Rank Summary[L] Fri, Feb-12 : Good Afternoon, Trade Rank is now easier to access via our recently added Summary Table: From this table you can access all of the Trade Rank charts plus do a few other …
  • Friday Update[L] Fri, Feb-12 : Good Afternoon, Been a crazy week for the Mid-C hydro outlook with both the Ansergy and the NWRFC’s flow forecasts swinging up and down off of the US Bureau of Reclamation’s …
  • Price Effect on Drum Gate Maintenance[L] Thu, Feb-11 : Good Morning, Ansergy implemented changes to its hydro energy forecast last night to reflect the effects of the proposed drum gate maintenance on Grand Coulee dam.  The project requires Coulee to …
  • Drum Gate Maint – Model Update[L] Wed, Feb-10 : Good Afternoon, We believe that the Bureau of Reclamation is committed to performing maintenance on Coulee this winter.  When they do it is optional but with extremely low prices we suspect …
  • Feb Flood Control Guidelines – Revised[L] Wed, Feb-10 : NOTE: We now believe that the drum gate maintenance will happen this winter and as a consequence we no longer support a long March Mid-C position.   Good Morning, Before delving into the forecast changes let’s …
  • STP Update …. Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr[L] Tue, Feb-9 : Good Afternoon, Speaking of kicking a dog while its down, those feds did it again … the STP just came out this afternoon and its chock full of fun and surprises. Monthly …
  • North Weakness, South Strength[L] Tue, Feb-9 : Good Morning, Price Forecasts – Selected Markets Next Day Mid-C bore the brunt of a bearish turn in the Ansergy forecasts, day on day, with a drop of $1.46 for on peak.  This crash …
  • Winter is Coming … to an End![L] Mon, Feb-8 : Good Morning, Let’s start with the price forecast, then we will explore some of the more important fundamental developments. Next Day Our models are forecasting lower prices across all hubs for both on and …
  • AC Derate & Other Bearishness[L] Wed, Feb-3 : Good Morning, BPA has down-rated the AC to 3800 mw for the near term and flows have dropped accordingly: Mid-C to NP15 Transmission Flows (actuals): On the surface it should not be a …
  • STP Update – Feb 1[L] Mon, Feb-1 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast today at 2:43 pm pst and delivered no great surprises.  The front was raised (yawn) and the back was lowered (yawn again, …
  • Dryer and Still Warm[L] Mon, Feb-1 : Good Morning January retired with a whimper while February commenced with the same whimper, though a shade warmer and a touch dryer: Mid-C Composite Weather Forecast The 6-10 is bone dry, something we …
  • Water Supply Cuts – Surprise[L] Fri, Jan-29 : Good Morning, One nugget of information today which caught me by surprise, perhaps because I am sitting in 80 degree Mexico at the moment, was a cut in the RFC’s water …
  • Quick Update[L] Thu, Jan-28 : Good Morning, Not a lot of news; a bit dryer in the northwest, slightly cooler but not cold. Most telling is the lack of precipitation beyond 10 days and worthy of our …
  • Just a Hint Less Bearish[L] Tue, Jan-26 : Good Afternoon, I wanted to hold off on posting this morning because it would have been the same post you’ve read the last few days…. alas, it’s still pretty much the …
  • STP Update – Jan 25, 2016[L] Mon, Jan-25 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC released its weekly outlook for northwest river flows this afternoon (1:37 pm pst).  As expected the front received a boost while the back was relatively ignored, Daily Energy …
  • Feb Flood Control Outlook & Today’s STP Prediction[L] Mon, Jan-25 : Good Morning, Starting with weather … the WECC is looking at another bearish week with warm temps and robust precip.  The Mid-C storm we first discussed early last week, the one …
  • Friday Outlook – Bearish with a Trace of Bullish[L] Fri, Jan-22 : Good Morning, The weather outlook for the northwest remains warm and modestly wet: Mid-C Composite Weather Forecast The storm next week remains in the forecast and most of that Mid-C precip makes it …
  • Thursday Outlook – Continued Bearish[L] Thu, Jan-21 : Good Morning, The outlook for Mid-C is for slightly dryer in days 1-5 with hints of a new storm in days 6-10.  Temp-wise it’s still warmer than a bull would like; …
  • STP Update – Massive Change[L] Tue, Jan-19 : Good Afternoon, Normally I’d wait until tomorrow morning to publish the STP update (updated at 2:46 pm PST on the RFC site; updated on Ansergy’s site 5 minutes later) but these …
  • NW Hydro Update[L] Tue, Jan-19 : Good Morning, There is an ever so slight hint of cooler weather in the northwest, though given it happens in days 11-15 there is an every high probability of cold weather …
  • I Have A Dream …[L] Mon, Jan-18 : Good Morning, I had a dream where an EL Nino Mid-C was Cold and Dry but alas, it was only a dream, and Mid-C is Warm and Wet: In fact it is …
  • Ansergy Product Enhancements[L] Fri, Jan-15 : New Summary Reports See the current values and the change from recent periods quickly with navigation to charts readily available. This has also led to less complex menus and few clicks …
  • Same o Same o Thu, Jan-14 : Good Morning, Would love to report something new, something bullish, but can’t lie – the outlook remains wet and warm: Ansergy’s Fundamental Sentiment Index at Mid-C (aggregation of 50+ week on week …
  • Flood Control Update[L] Wed, Jan-13 : Good Morning, Like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, I keep waking up each morning to a warmer and wetter outlook: Even NP15 gets soaked by this current system, though Socal will, for …
  • Broken Record – Mild & Wet[L] Tue, Jan-12 : Good Morning, The Mid-C outlook, shorter term, is a touch more bearish this morning as it is a touch wetter in the outlook than it was yesterday.  Forget Seattle and Portland …
  • STP Update – Jan 11, 2016[L] Mon, Jan-11 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC updated its 120 day forecast at 1:43 pm today and as expected the BOM got a 1gw boost and the Feb-Apr got boned: I still shake …
  • Trending Wetter at Mid-C[L] Mon, Jan-11 : Good Morning, The Mid-C looks to be moving into a wetter spell, not the epic rains of December, yet above normal.  That wetness, coupled with temperatures which are warmish plus those …
  • Dry and Warm[L] Fri, Jan-8 : Good Morning, The outlook for the northwest is, as the subject says, dryer and warmer than what we’ve seen earlier this week: The warm will shed a gig or two of load, …
  • Mid-Week Update[L] Wed, Jan-6 : Good Morning, On the surface the northwest current weather forecast is relatively unchanged: I say on the surface because Portland took a slightly bullish turn: Not a big deal, unless that cold lingers …
  • STP Update – Minor[L] Tue, Jan-5 : Good Morning, As expected the NWRFC made but minor adjustments to its 120 day forecast, released yesterday: The daily plot emphasizes the stability of the week on week forecasts: Weather outlook is relatively …
  • New Year, New Outlook[L] Mon, Jan-4 : Good Morning, Hope everyone had a nice holiday and are ready to get back to work as there is some work to be done to figure out what all the updates …
  • Happy New Years[L] Wed, Dec-30 : Good Morning Last post of this year and want to thank each of our clients for their support during Ansergy’s inaugural year.  We eagerly look forward to 2016 and the many …
  • STP Update – Bizarrely Bullish[L] Tue, Dec-29 : Good Morning, Still pondering last night’s STP and it still doesn’t make a lot of sense.  Let’s start with the year on year: One glance tells us 2016 will be the driest …
  • Cold Growing[L] Mon, Dec-28 : Good Morning, The news today is the cold snap we saw before Christmas has grown, in both intensity and duration, into the real deal: And it is dry, so chalk up today’s …
  • WX Update[L] Wed, Dec-23 : Good Morning, Weather forecast is a mixed bag with one constant – dry.  Mid-C struggles to retain cold weather (at least on the west side), California enjoys a  lingering chill, and …
  • STP Update[L] Tue, Dec-22 : Good Morning, The 120 day update arrived last night with a hint of bullishness: All good, right?  Me thinks not for a couple of reasons, but first let’s examine these months in …
  • Backing off, building up[L] Mon, Dec-21 : Good Morning, The cold that was coming still is, just not as cold and for not as long, rendering the event a non-event: Portland is chilly but just slightly below normal: Still, this …
  • DC Outage Extended[L] Thu, Dec-17 : Good Morning, A couple of quick updates.  The cold in the back end of the weather forecast for the northwest has not dissipated: This event is not as remarkable for the quantity …
  • Mike’s Take – Early Christmas?[L] Wed, Dec-16 : Good Morning, The NWRFC posted a surprise update to its 120 day forecast yesterday, one which we believe is more likely a mistake than an actual change in their outlook, but …
  • STP Update – Bearish[L] Tue, Dec-15 : Good Morning The RFC has upped the flows on the back-end of its 120 day forecast, again: Dec is unchanged while Jan-Feb each enjoyed a 600 aMW bump.  The daily plot illustrates …
  • Mike’s Take – Hints of Bullishness[L] Mon, Dec-14 : Good Morning, The Mid-C is in store for a touch of cool weather scheduled to arrive just before the holidays: A weather forecast beyond day five is sketchy but this brief cold …
  • Mike’s Take – Head Fake?[L] Fri, Dec-11 : Good Morning, As the northwest reels from a 2-3 standard deviation precip event the market reeled as well with BOM Mid-C trading as low as the teens on the 7th, though …
  • Product Update – Hydro Model Change[L] Wed, Dec-9 : Good Morning, As alluded to in an earlier post we have switched from STP to  our our internal flow forecasts for the STP period (Day 10 to Day 120).  The change …
  • To Catch a Falling Knife[L] Wed, Dec-9 : The North American energy markets are in free fall this week. Crude, gas and power have all hit lows for the year in cash markets and the forward curves across …
  • STP Update – KaBoom[L] Tue, Dec-8 : Good Morning, The folks at the NWRFC were late in releasing this week’s STP, apparently they had to recheck their forecast numbers over and over and over.  This was/is the biggest …
  • Mike’s Take – STP Tea Leaves[L] Mon, Dec-7 : Good  Morning, The northwest has/is/will be wet; the NWRFC agrees as evidenced by their most recent 10 day forecast: Yes, that is a 2200 aMW increase (versus last week’s STP) in projected …
  • Mike’s Take – Whipsaw[L] Fri, Dec-4 : Good Morning, This latest storm that has/is/will hit  the Mid-C is big and worthy of further discussion. Bear in mind those are production-weighted precipitation forecasts, the cities themselves (Seattle), especially on the …
  • Mike’s Take – Weakness[L] Thu, Dec-3 : Good Morning, The NWRFC’s 10 day outlook is growing increasingly bearish for the northwest: Those are big increases from earlier forecasts and even bigger when compared to the STP.  Bearishness breeds more …
  • The Balmy Beaches of…….Lake Michigan[L] Tue, Dec-1 : The weather continues to deliver a downright warm environment for this time of year and gas producers have been cursing the forecast every time it comes out with another swath …
  • STP Update[L] Tue, Dec-1 : Good Morning, This week’s STP delivered what was expected and nothing more as evidenced by the monthly energy summary: Very slight haircuts in Dec-Jan, a slight bump in Feb and essentially no …
  • Mike’s Take – The Witching Hour[L] Mon, Nov-30 : The witching hour is commonly referred to as that time of night when supernatural creatures are believed to be particularly active, but I’m not referring to ghosts and goblins, Halloween …
  • Mike’s Take – A few bonus days of cold[L] Fri, Nov-27 : Good Morning, The forecasts have extended this mini-cold snap out a few more days …and enhanced it, especially at Portland: 24 degrees in Portland is cold plus the NWS extended the cold …
  • Report Card[L] Wed, Nov-25 : Good Morning, There are two types of children: one’s that can’t wait for dad to open their report card and those that hope dad forgets about that report card.  It’s time …
  • A Tale of Two Water Years[L] Tue, Nov-24 : I was looking at some of the hydro systems’ reactions to the relatively brief cold snap that hit the Northwest this week and found something that intrigued me. Mike mentioned …
  • Mike’s Take – Tempering Temperatures[L] Tue, Nov-24 : Good Morning, The cold snap snapped and now its not that cold, though loads are definitely up in the northwest: Ansergy has added a couple more “actual” stations:  Pac East and Pac …
  • STP Update – BOM BULLISH[L] Mon, Nov-23 : Good Afternoon, We got some action on the STP today – a nice 1 gig bom haircut: The trailing months also had modest cuts – clearly the RFC is getting the same …
  • Mike’s Take – Baby it’s cold outside![L] Mon, Nov-23 : Good Morning, Forget “Winter is coming”, it’s here.  Seattle is clocking in the mid-30s for lows and expected to get down to perhaps the high 20s; Portland  a bit cooler; even …
  • Mike’s Take – Winter is Coming[L] Thu, Nov-19 : Good Morning, It’s shaping up for a cold Thanksgiving, the first breath of Winter will arrive on Monday, though it is short-lived: This event is cold, teens on the east-side of the …
  • Will Bears Hibernate No More?[L] Wed, Nov-18 : I was hiking in the Rocky mountains on the weekend and in the skiff of snow that fell on the mountains recently, I came across some grizzly bear tracks. Much …
  • New Reports for Current Water Year and Snowpack[L] Tue, Nov-17 : Two new reports summarize current snowpack and current precipitation compared to normal.  Each basin links to historical charts for comparison to the last 5 years of data. Find them under …
  • STP Update – BIG BOM BUMP[L] Tue, Nov-17 : Good morning, The STP, as expected, comes out bearish BOM but surprisingly neutral the balance of the strip:   Yesterday’s 10 day forecast  tipped the Portland prognosticator’s hand showing a big jump in …
  • Mike’s Take – Water Update[L] Mon, Nov-16 : Good Morning, The Mid-C is undergoing a material change in outlook driven by substantial precipitation, much of it coming down as snow, and more on the way.  The most recent weather …
  • Mike’s Take – Water Update[L] Fri, Nov-13 : Good Morning, I was surprised to see the NWRFC back off hydro in its 10 day forecast: Especially next week; this weekend is just the typical shaping adjustments.  Given the substantial precip …
  • Product Update – Daily Control Area Forecasts[L] Thu, Nov-12 : Ansergy has added a new report, Daily Control Area Forecasts, that computes the following control area  metrics for daily on peak and off peak: Load – Ansergy forecasts its hub-level load …
  • Mike’s Take – Bigger Rain Thu, Nov-12 : Good Morning, The Mid-C 7 day forecast is looking wetter than yesterday’s, which was an already wet outlook: This is production-weighted precipitation and is still skewed by massive west-side rains: This kind of …
  • Mike’s Take – Let it Rain[L] Wed, Nov-11 : Good Afternoon, Check out the plot of projected Mid-C precipitation, it’s gonna get wet (and stay warm): That’s a lake-load of water that will be fall across the Mid-C over the next …
  • Nimbostratus November[L] Mon, Nov-9 : Anyone who has spent any time or lived in the Pacific Northwest has developed an intimate relationship with clouds. If Cascadia had developed as an independent nation with its own language, …
  • STP Update – Nov 9, 2015[L] Mon, Nov-9 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC has completed it’s weekly forecast of northwest hydro flows.  The following plot summarizes the last five RFC STP forecasts.  By comparing the current week’s forecast to the …
  • Mike’s Take – El What?[L] Mon, Nov-9 : Good morning, We had a wet weekend in Seattle and that trend appears to be continuing on through the rest of the week with at least another inch expected by week’s …
  • Mike’s Take – Loves the Q3-2 Mid-C On Peak Roll[L] Thu, Nov-5 : Good Afternoon, Just a quick update on a few things, more NW hydro focused than anything else. The last storms have now set a few of the principal basins in positive …
  • STP Update – Nov 2[L] Mon, Nov-2 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC released this week’s STP late this afternoon and, as expected and previously foretold this morning, is slightly bearish for BOM, neutral for the other months: One can’t, or …
  • Mike’s Take – Nov 2[L] Mon, Nov-2 : Good Morning, Northwest loads are drifting up on cooler weather; southwest loads are now mired in the trough of winter doldrums, but that is not what is relevant.  Water, lots of …
  • Product Update – Changes to Forecast Methodology[L] Thu, Oct-29 : Ansergy will be making some changes to its models and reports over this weekend. These changes are intended to make the model more transparent and improve the forecast accuracy. Please …
  • Mike’s Take – Hydro[L] Thu, Oct-29 : Good Morning, There is not a lot to say about demand other than loads are creeping up at the Mid-C and drifting down at SP: This isn’t new, therefore isn’t news, …
  • Hang on to What you Got[L] Wed, Oct-28 : The STP forecasters have begun to reflect the reality of the hydro supply situation in their current modelling outputs. The magnitude of the drop in the STP Daily Forecast this …
  • STP Update – Oct 26[L] Mon, Oct-26 : Good Afternoon, As expected the River Forecast Center has slashed flows across the Mid-C; let’s start by looking at the month on month changes: This recent forecast is a material departure from …
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 26[L] Mon, Oct-26 : Good Morning, I am seeing a slight uptick in NW loads: Comparing week on week, Saturday to Saturday, there is a 500 aMW bump; looking two weeks back the increase is 700 …
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 23[L] Fri, Oct-23 : Good Morning, ISO loads are tanking while the Northwest’s are trending unchanged: Looking out the LA basin remains warm, the projected cooling has been displaced with more heat, let’s call that …
  • Bouncing Along the Bottom[L] Tue, Oct-20 : There hasn’t been much that has changed in the western fundamental picture over the last week or so (lack of precipitation included). The warm pattern that has locked in over …
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 20[L] Tue, Oct-20 : Good Morning, Before diving into the market allow me to explain a bit further the issues with website speed.  Apparently Google released an update to Chrome over the weekend that results …
  • Oct 19 STP Update[L] Mon, Oct-19 : Good Afternoon, We have a new STP 120 day forecast, effective around 2:00 pm pacific time.  As for that update, not much to say other than the RFC is consistently consistent. This …
  • Website issues[L] Mon, Oct-19 : We have resolved most of the performance issues that some users experienced this morning. If you experience any slowness please notify us at info@ansergy.com.
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 16[L] Fri, Oct-16 : Good Morning, Weather turns neutral (from bullish) in SP15: While Mid-C temperatures drop and begin to assume an element of heating load-driven bullishness: And the rains are returning adding a slightly bearish twist to …
  • Product Update – Generation Stacks[L] Wed, Oct-14 : Good Afternoon, To provide further transparancy, and add additional market intel, we have add our generation stacks to the site (Execution Tools – Generation Stacks).  Below is a sample of the …
  • STP Update – Minor Changes[L] Tue, Oct-13 : Good Afternoon, The NWRFC has updated their weekly flow forecasts (STP) this afternoon.  Not anything in these numbers that will raise your pulse but still worthy of a brief discussion, beginning …
  • The Nature of Trends – Secular or Cyclical (revised)[L] Tue, Oct-13 : October to date has been an interesting month in terms of fundamental divergences in the west power markets. The cash fundamentals of the Northwest markets have been about as bearish as one …
  • Mid-C Fundamentals Dashboard Released[L] Mon, Oct-12 : The new Mid-C dashboard includes the latest fundamentals on weather, loads, hydro , wind and transmission flows for the hub.  Stay tuned for additional dashboards to be released over the …
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 12[L] Mon, Oct-12 : Good Morning, Today’s outlook looks rather bland, at least on the surface.  North loads are at the seasonal trough and soon to rally hard while south loads are beginning the long …
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 9[L] Fri, Oct-9 : Good Morning, The news of the day is a big spike in ISO loads, up nearly 5000 MW from the start of the week due to the LA valleys reaching the …
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 7[L] Wed, Oct-7 : Good Morning, I have a few things to cover this morning, beginning with the fundamentals then a few thoughts on Mid-C Nov and the spreads.  The LA Basin is due for …
  • STP Update – Oct 5[L] Mon, Oct-5 : Good Afternoon, Our friends at the NWRFC have updated their 120 day flow forecast (STP) for the northwest hydro projects.  I’d like to say it is a shocking forecast but that …
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 5[L] Mon, Oct-5 : Good Morning, Burbank temperatures rally hard – back to the high 90s: While the northwest remains pleasantly bearish: Actual loads have tumbled far and fast in the south and just modestly in the …
  • Mike’s Take – Oct 2[L] Fri, Oct-2 : Good Morning, It’s a new day and a new water year.  Well, actually yesterday was the start of the new water year and it began auspiciously for the NWRFC.  One of their water …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 30[L] Wed, Sep-30 : Good Morning, End of Q3 today, one for the record books, and one which will shape trading for years to come.  Most remarkable, to me at least, was how well BPA …
  • A Bear in Full[L] Tue, Sep-29 : The door is now closed on Q3 2015 and we enter the final quarter of the year in a decidedly bearish frame of mind. The bear has had a hold …
  • Kiss Oct Goodbye[L] Tue, Sep-29 : Good Morning, Just one or two more days of trading Oct before it slides into BOM – before that happens I wanted to take a quick tour of the Oct products …
  • STP Update – Sep 28[L] Mon, Sep-28 : STP Update – Sept 28, 2015 Greetings, The NWRFC completed its update of the 120 day forecast (STP) just now.  The Ansergy take on this important forecast is summarized best in the …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 28[L] Mon, Sep-28 : Good Morning, I left off last week looking at the NWRFC 10 day forecast, focusing on what appeared to be a material cut in their forecast (versus previous 10 day forecasts …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 25[L] Fri, Sep-25 : Good Morning, One thing jumps out this morning – a cut in the NWRFC 10 day forecast: This cut showed up yesterday and I will be watching today’s (noonish eastern time) for …
  • Mike’s Take – SP15[L] Thu, Sep-24 : Good Morning, Not much to report on Mid-C … the weather in Seattle is stunningly beautiful.  Not too hot, not too cold, perfect for golf and awful for loads.  Down south …
  • Product Update – WY16 Now Uses El Nino Years[L] Thu, Sep-24 : Greetings, We have made a material changes to the model: Water Year Ending 2016 is now being computed using only El Nino Years; all other water years (2017) will use all years. …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 22[L] Tue, Sep-22 : Good Morning, Nothing much to report on the STP – the price impact on the forecast of yesterday’s minor changes is immaterial – I’ll pass on posting a non-event.  That said …
  • STP Update – 9/21[L] Tue, Sep-22 : STP Update – Sep 21 Good Morning, After an initial “fail” the NWRFC capably published a full 120 day forecast late yesterday afternoon.   The only excitement in this release was the …
  • STP Revised Release[L] Tue, Sep-22 : STP Update – Sep 21 Good Morning, After an initial “fail” the NWRFC capably published a full 120 day forecast late yesterday afternoon.   The only excitement in this release was the …
  • The Art of The Exit[L] Mon, Sep-21 : Trading, particularly in relatively illiquid markets, is more an art than a science.  Often times, when one wants to enter or exit a position in WECC power, patience is a …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 21[L] Mon, Sep-21 : It’s official …. Summer is over, at least for the northwest, but  The LA basin looks to enjoy another heat wave this week: That is nearly 8 degrees warmer than where we …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 18[L] Fri, Sep-18 : Good Morning, Still pondering last week’s “heat wave” and it’s minimal impact upon loads in the northwest( BPA+BC Hydro + Puget Area): A different story in California, the incremental peak  was over 14,000 MW: Goes to show …
  • Product Update – Sep 17[L] Thu, Sep-17 : Greetings, We at Ansergy believe in continuous improvement and are constantly seeking better ways to display our data/forecasts. As we make these changes we will update our users in the blog. …
  • Snow![L] Thu, Sep-17 :
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 15[L] Tue, Sep-15 : Good Morning, Mid-C loads continue looking bearish ….to real bearish; add a rain event (almost a 1/2″ at Boise in next few days).  Actual loads reflect a slight drop but what …
  • Product Update – Puget Loads Added[L] Tue, Sep-15 : Puget Sound Area has been added to the Current Loads. Click here to view.
  • The Slow Grind Down[L] Mon, Sep-14 : The last vestiges of bullish fundamentals are hanging on in the southern WECC, while in the Pac NW (Mid C Demand)  and the Rockies (Rockies Demand), load has begun to evaporate. In …
  • STP Update – Sep 14[L] Mon, Sep-14 : STP Update – Sep 14 Greetings, The RFC released this week’s STP today; the changes are reflected in the daily energy chart: We are not surprised by the increase in energy; the government …
  • Product Update – Sep 14[L] Mon, Sep-14 : Greetings, Ansergy has made a few changes over the weekend that we believe will enhance the value you receive from the service.  This post will outline those changes: Control Area Forecasts We have …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 14[L] Mon, Sep-14 : Good Morning, Weather A bearish good morning to you all as the northwest sees temperatures plunge 20-30 degrees and a material rain event hits the region.   Even the east side gets wet, …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 11 (911 …hard to believe its been 14 years) – Updated[L] Fri, Sep-11 : Good Morning, A couple things jump out today beginning with the collapse in temperatures in the south:       The north, we already know, cools down considerably and collects another precip event:   It’s not …
  • New Natural Gas Burn Forecasts and Control Area Loads Added[L] Fri, Sep-11 : Explore the new Natural Gas Burn for Power Generation forecast, sensitivity analysis and scenarios over 26 different weather years.   Control Area Forecasts hourly for 14 days out is now available.
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 10[L] Thu, Sep-10 : Good Morning, It is a good morning here in Seattle, the weather is about as ideal as one could script: mid 70s with just a mild breeze.  Perfect weather for those …
  • STP Update – Sep 8[L] Tue, Sep-8 : NWRFC STP Update – Sep 8, 2015 September 8, 2015 Greetings, The following plot is a summary of the most recent STP forecast as compared to the previous four weeks: The plot is notable …
  • Mike’s Take – Sep 8[L] Tue, Sep-8 : Good Morning, Hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend; Seattle had big rain storms on Saturday, cool and dry on Sunday, and just as the weekend wound to an end it became …