Market Commentary

Welcome to Ansergy’s WECC Market Commentary. Once a day, our clients receive timely (pre-market) updates on the major drivers of price. We are sharing those posts with you, on a two-week delayed basis. If you would like to access the live commentary, please register for a trial. …. Team Ansergy


Ansergy’s Power Map

Good Morning,Yesterday was Columbus Day, the day we celebrate the slaughter of 20 million native Americans. We forgot it was a holiday until we noticed the NERC didn't update the nukes and the RFC blew off the STP. Now we know.Instead of a blog, I wanted to talk about our new map that lists all of the Ansergy Hubs, power plants, and transmission lines. I'm a map guy, and I like this one, hope you do as well. You can find the map here: The two menu items below the Interactive are static versions; I'm going to discuss the interactive one. After selecting Interactive Map, you're taking to this screen:You can navigate from within this frame, but I prefer expanding. Click the icon in the upper right to expand, and you'll get a full-screen version. Alternatively, you can change layers and zoom in and out from this view. To change the layers, click the square in the upper left; zoom is in the lower left. 

Interactive Full-Screen View

Check/uncheck the boxes to the left to add/remove layers. By default, the Rivers and Thermals are selected. To view the Ansergy Hub Topology, check Hubs and Transmission:This map displays the 16 WECC power hubs and the transmission lines interconnecting those hubs. This is the topology used in the Ansergy forecast model; the size of the line reflects the TTC.

Hydro Mapping

You can drill down to specific hydro projects and see which Hydro Group its mapped to:Each Hydro Group has its own independent Water Supply Forecast (not the NWRFC's, Ansergy's) along with hourly streamflow and energy for five years. All Water Supply and Flow forecasts are updated daily. "If yesterday it dumped in the Flathead, June's forecast puked today, and perhaps APT flagged the spread as a Buy."Available Layers
  • State Boundary
  • Power Hubs
  • Transmission Lines
  • Rivers
  • Power Plants
    • Hydro
    • Thermal
    • Renewables
    • Storage (Batteries and Pumped Storage)
Drop us a note if you'd like help with the map.Cheers,
  • Team Ansergy
  • 206-877-0991
  • info@ansrgy.com

Monday Update

Good Morning,The BOM continues to soar, Socal Citygate craters (cash), and it looks like LA might get hot again. Lots of news, so let's get after it.Check out the MidC, it's now trading above levels last saw in August when cash was clearing north of $200; now cash clears $30. Some of this strength is explained by Henry Hub:The November contract is up $0.40 in a few weeks; the rest is told by a significant tightening in Northwest cash gas:Check out the Socal Citygate | Northwest Sumas cash spread as of Friday -  a meager $.05 and Sumas cleared over PG&E Citygate - whoa! Also, take note of the Socal's collapse from earlier last week - down an astounding $1.40 in just a few days. Cool weather is to blame, power demand inside the ISO collapsed, and prices in the Solar Ramp are trading low, sometimes negative.But that might change next week, NOAA's 6-14 day plots are all hot across the load center west.This is for Monday, October 15. Note LA at 90, 9 degrees warmer than Las Vegas; even San Jose is warmer than Sin City. Crazy, but just call it what it is - Santa Ana. Those hot winds pouring off the desert will bake the City of Angels. 90 probably isn't hot enough to stress things, but we'd suggest watching these forecasts over the next couple of days for builds.But "why" you gasp; it's late October, Summer is over, right? Wrong:LA has hit the 100s a few times in Oct, in fact, there is an outside chance of setting Season Highs in October. This system isn't set up to do that just yet, hence the need to keep an eye on it. If nothing else, this might be an excellent time to buy BOM SP or Citygate, as a lotto ticket the temps creep up over the week.The Day Ahead LMPs rallied off of Thursday for Friday's numbers; we also take note of the massive NP|SP congestion in the solar ramp. All the while. The Northwest remains tight to NP; there is no discount on this hours; water is too dear to them.We already mentioned it was growing warmer, the above compares today's forecast with Fridays and in many hours today's has grown warmer.Both supply and demand are tanking in Socal; PG&E demand has sustained a modest rally, perhaps off of nighttime heating load?Realized temperatures are cool enough, especially in the Northwest where highs were in the fifties. The table to the right measures the cumulative degree days by the station for October.Wonder no longer why Citygate crashed; power plant burn at SP is nearly non-existent; PV too.Outage season has started; all three ISO hubs had sharp bumps in gas units offline, all on the same date, suggesting most were Planned. Take those charts and project them onto Palo and Nevada, a similar situation there, too.Check out the crash in solar energy on Thursday - nothing like a bit of rain to block out the sun. MidC's wind was a no-show over the weekend but not true at SP - there the hub realized its highest combined renewals in several weeks, further explaining Citygate's problems.That caught our eye, the forecasted precip totals for Kalispell today - 1.5 inches of the wet stuff. That is a material amount of water this early in the season and will increase the October totals by 150% to 2.5".  But, following that storm, the entire Northwest goes mostly dry.Coulee discharge is at a calendar year low; mostly because BPA has elected to refill the reservoir. What little water is coming into the reservoir is staying in the reservoir, to be pulled at some future date, probably when BPA least needs the water.The Peace is a massive energy producing baseloaded machine, either serving BC's internal loads or supporting an aggressive export regime. Arrow discharge collapsed but flows at the US border are back to average.Total energy on the Lower Columbia is off, week-on-week. Watch flows this week, let's see what impact that Kalispell rain has on the system.The Pend Oreille is up 15kcfs, not a trivial amount for early October. All of that is regulated off of a Lake Pend Oreille draft.Albeni Falls regulates the lake, check out the dropping reservoir levels; but that's normal, BPA always drafts the lake at this time of year.Shifting our water eyes to the south, we see Shasta generating well-above normal, and the Pit posted some high numbers while New Melones production is off; seems the state is just playing a shell game with its reservoirs as it prays for an El Nino.Meanwhile, total Cal ISO Hydro energy is off, tanking to be exact. I guess the ISO doesn't need (want) the energy, better to save the water for growing federally subsidized cotton that no one wants.Hey! It's Monday, that means today is STP day. The RFC's 10 Day often provides some near-term Tells; the tell today is telling us to expect cuts in Oct. We need to look deeper for insight into the rest of the 120-day forecast.If they cut Oct much, it will become the lowest in 20 years. November used to be in that position, but after several weeks of successive bumps, it is now projected to be the fourth lowest. Only one year was lower in Dec while Jan seems just average. Our prediction will be cuts in bom,  nov sideways, bumps in dec that are paid for with cuts in Jan.No changes in the Northwest's TTC on the AC and DC; just be forewarned the DC is going to zero this weekend.BC is selling more into the Northwest; the DC line is selling less (why would they give the ISO its energy at those prices?); same is true on the AC, though some of that can be explained by cuts in TTC; Palo sold more just because it didn't have the load to absorb its own generation. All energy is flowing net north on the ISO's "Paths."

Conclusions

Loads are going up; supply is going down. We'd be modest buyers, and our books would be long.

Water Year 2019 Activation

Greetings,Ansergy has activated its 2019 water year model. We are now forecasting water supply %, stream flows, and energy for 40 WECC hydro projects. Northwest stations are matched with the NWRFC forecasts.Our forecasts are updated every day using the most recent snow data. You can plot Ansergy vs NWRFC for any station and any forecast period. On a sidebar, we are surprised the RFC is forecasting the Salmon at 95% and the Clearwater at 108%. After all, these two rivers are next to each other and neither has more than an inch of snow anywhere.The water supply forecasts drive Ansergy's streamflow projections. Whereas the NWRFC release's its 120-day STP forecast once a week, Ansergy publishes its full water year (360 days) every day, even weekends. Those flows are using in our hourly production cost model and drive new power price forecasts. If it snows in the Sierras you'll see our NP15 June prices change the next day.We also publish two types of snow data. Snow depth reports return inches of snow and rain along with the anomaly %.Snow reports include 11 years of daily data (2008 through 2018).  Quickly compare today's depth with any prior year.Drop us a note if you'd like some custom reports or some one-on-one training.Cheers,
  • Team Ansergy
  • 206-877-0991
  • info@ansergy.com

Change Mid-C

This weekly report, Change, summarizes how the week that just ended compares to both last week, and the same week a year ago.  Through 1000 change records, we have filtered down to those that we found most relevant. [render_email_report name="Change - MidC" date="2018-10-06"]

WECC’s Thursday Outlook

Good Morning,The most striking report I discovered today was the big move taking place in BOM MidC HL:The market went bid, and no offers appeared, though we are not so convinced things are as tight as that chart would suggest. In a week, the region loses 2000 MWs of export capacity and gains in flows on its rivers from expected rain, though you'd think not a drop was coming based upon NOAA's 8-14 day:At least not much on the coastal ranges, but those don't matter as much as the west-side Rockies, and in the 6-10 day they get drenched, same shows up in the NWS forecasts:We're most interested in the top three, the bottom three are more westside and will feed much smaller projects. These are not biblical amounts but they are bearish, yet the BOM is off to the races. Perhaps it is that cold weather, but this is October and those cold anomalies mean about 55 in Seattle, not 35.SP15 is off from last week's levels and the SP-Palo spread is blowing out, possibly from the remnants of hurricane Rosa which crushed temperature and brought rain.86 in Phoenix? 76 in Riverside? No wonder the LMPs are off.Cash might be falling, but term Socal Citygate is rallying, having recovered about 50% of the selloff.Yes, loads are off everywhere, including the MidC, though we are starting to see night-time Northwest loads rally as the hub swings to heating load.PV2 just isn't quite ready to shut down for its refueling, but that is coming, most likely over the weekend. We believe a Diablo unit (#1) is next in the refuel queue.As temperature's plummet in the Sunshine state its gas noms follow and are heading towards the winter lows. NP's have rallied of late even though a few of its gas units are offline. SP has more outages than NP.About half of those units are in planned maintenance; more will follow as we move through the month.SP's solar took a two gig haircut yesterday and NP saw its greatest wind production in months on Tuesday. Same with the MidC, that region cranked out nearly three gigs for a few hours.Coulee discharge continues tight, though yesterday was up from Monday and the lows aren't as low.The mighty Peace projects cranked up, most likely to serve exports to the Northwest and BC's own loads. While the Peace rallied, flows out of Arrow tanked as did the Columbia River flows at the US border.Further downstream, on the Lower Columbia, production dropped from last week which may explain some of the BOM rally.So might BC's reservoirs, which are now about 2 MAF behind the ten-year average. Don't hit the panic button, but that is two a MAF hole that must be filled in. In a very dry year, it would be problematic.Discharge at Shasta is now well above average and the Pit is back to shaping its water and is also above normal. That doesn't say much, normal California flows in October are the equivalent of a couple of cows taking a leak in the Sierras.The River Forecast Center is projecting higher energy production next week, then takes it all away the following week.No changes in BPA's TTC outlook; the DC is going to zero in a week.The Northern Intertie is exporting; the AC went to zero for an hour yesterday (where did that come from?); Path 26 restored its TTC (but it never mattered), and even the Palo line saw a derate yesterday. But that didn't matter either, flows exceeded TTC for most of the "outage."

Conclusions

I don't get the BOM MidC Rally but can't deny the Northwest is water-tight. NOAA's 8-14 day bodes poorly for SP and Palo length, that forecast takes us out to Oct 18. Still, time for a Santa Ana but those hopes are quickly fading.

Mid-Week Update

Good morning, NOAA Forecast ImagesAutumn is making its appearance across the west, at least in terms of deviation from normal, as everything from the Rockies-West is looking cooler than normal for both this week and next week.  We may see temps creep closer to average in the second week of the forecast, but cooler weather should prevail.Precipitation ForecastDespite unseasonably cooler weather, we won't be seeing a wetter than average week in the Northwest.LMP SpreadsThe SP-PV day ahead spreads hit their peak with $13 of difference on the 2nd.  SP-NP were much closer as just $2 differed on the 2nd, with NP showing up with the higher price for the second-consecutive day.FuturesCrude was off $0.28 yesterday but dropped as much as $0.48 from the day's high of $75.36.  Gas was up close to $0.02 after checking in at $3.23.West Term Gas PricesNovember SoCal CityGate jumped $0.32 day-on-day yesterday after settling at $4.03.  Most other hubs showed a more subdued $0.10 increase over the same span of time, though EP-Perm moved just two cents.Spot GasAECO posted a $0.20 increase at $2.37, also equal to a $1.02 increase in just a week.  Southwest Sumas jumped $0.28 day-on-day and is now $0.60 higher than the day before that.AECO's rally isn't showing signs of slowing down.Mid-C DemandSeattle coolest weather, at least in terms of deviation from the mean, will show up on the 5th as the day's high comes up six degrees shy of average (at just 57).  There is potential for a return to above-normal temps by the 11th.  Portland also shows a high of 57 on the 5th, but that checks in at ten degrees below normal.Northwest loads were down a couple hundred MW day-on-day yesterday though off-peak demand was up more than 600 MW.NP 15 DemandNP peak demand increased just under 100 MW day-on-day yesterday but was down more than 450 MW week-on-week.  Light loads showed a 500 MW increase day-on-day.San Jose's forecast is filled with daily highs checking in right at normal, at least until the 11th when temps look considerably warmer and may also mark the return of 80-degree days.Sacramento projects neutral degree-days through the 10th as nearly every day settles with a high in the mid-70s.SP-15 DemandSP peak demand plummeted more than 3,000 MW at its peak yesterday compared to Monday, all this despite a week-on-week increase of more than 1,000 MW.Highs are falling in Burbank along with demand.  Today is expected to top out at 73, nine degrees below normal.  Like much of the rest of the west, we may not see a return to above-normal temps until the 11th.PV DemandUnseasonably cool weather in Phoenix looks to prolong its stay through most of the remainder of the forecast.  Today falls eight degrees short of average at just 85 degrees.  Just one day over the next fourteen projects above 90.Nuke StatusPV2 continues to run below capacity after dropping another percentage point yesterday to 92%.Gas Plant NomsSP gas noms were off 40,000 MCF over the past two days but are down a more impressive 150,000 MCF week-on-week.  Yesterday's Mid-C noms were 160,000 MCF lower than they were on Sept. 20th but bounced back 60,000 MCF day-on-day after dropping to the lowest point in three months on Monday.RenewablesSP-15 solar saw two straight days of solar growth and topped out at 6,533 MW.  Wind added another 1,562 MW at its peak equating to a productive day of renewable generation.Mid-C wind had a dormant couple days after topping out at 1,367 MW on the 29nd but managed 680+MW yesterday.ISO Gas OutagesISO gas outages began piling up on the 30th and we saw even more yesterday as the total reached 5,134 MW, up from just 1,034 MW on the 29th.

Hydro

 PNW ReservoirsGrand Coulee added another foot since last week while Albeni Falls and Hungry Horse both shed a foot from elevation.River SpillBonneville continues its course of 12 hours of 2,200 CFS spill each day, and John Day has an eleven-hour spill of 1.600 MW.

Transmission

 BPA TTCNo changes to TTC in the BPA-COI line.BPA-NOB shows a new reduction in TTC beginning on the 13th and running through at least the 17th.  Have a wonderful day, William

STP Update

Good Morning, The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

  • October - Up 52 aMW
  • November - Down 8 aMW
  • December - Up 310 aMW
  • January - Up 511 aMW
October and November's change this week amount to little more than noise as October increased 53 aMW and November fell a paltry 8 aMW.  December posted a 310 aMW increase, on the other hand, and January followed that up with a 511 aMW increase of its own, both equating to the third-consecutive weekly increase. None of these changes come as a surprise, in fact, we'd suggest Nov and Dec are still light.

Daily

October had a fairly mundane increase as an aggregate but take a closer look at the daily movements and we see a little more excitement as the 10th shows a 500 aMW increase.  November stays essentially flat throughout the month, while December saw most of its gains come from the period of the 5th-14th.  January shows its increase coming at a flat rate from the 3rd through the remainder of the month.

Year on Year

October inched its way closer to average, December continues to pace behind despite this week's increase, while January appears to lie well in the top-half of those years graphed. William

WECC Fundamentals – Monday Oct 1

Good Morning,Lots of things happening across the WECC' some bullish, some bearish. Too many to dally on an intro,  so instead, "let's get at it."If only the date of this commentary was Dec 1, 2018, and not Oct 1, 2018. If such were the case, the above temperature plots would send shivers of delight down the long's backside and shudders of dread into the short's shorts. But it's Oct 1 and that dark blue means the end of Cooling Degree Days for most hubs, and it's too early to render many HDDs, so this is just bearish. The precip is bearish also, mostly above average.And, the remnants of a hurricane is heading for Palo Verde.The bullish news is the solar will go dark, but the demand decay will more than offset that sliver of silver in these dark clouds.

Markets

It's a new month, October, and a new BOM that is sending mixed signals. The South is tanking while the Northwest is rallying. We'd be inclined to fade that move off of a rallying hydro outlook in the Northwest.The new Prompt, Novy, is up across all four hubs and we'd be more inclined to sell the roll than buy it (Buy BOM, Sell Prompt).Here's a harbinger, LMP DA set a two-week high on the Sunday for Monday market. And take note of those heat rates, these are still those other-worldly summer 20ks. Another change, the On|Off spread has blown out; it's been tight all of Sept.The SP-Palo tightened up in yesterday's Day Ahead, there was a fair amount of congestion the prior three days. We'd think that spread will blow back out with Rosa pounding Palo. The SP-NOB also blew out while the NP-COB remains tight reflecting the dearth of water in the Northwest.And Socal Citygate found a bottom and rallied off of new problems with Socal Gas infrastructure. That poor utility, they can't fix anything. Instead of repairing they just break more things.Seems they dumped another 425 MMCF import capacity over the weekend. This is a new outage, there were no hints this was coming.Fitting, since today is the One Year Anniversary of the TWP Needles explosion; now it seems that measly 275 MMCF capacity has been cut in half. How long does it take to fix a pipe? In a year, they should have been able to build a new pipe from AZ to LA and all they had to do was patch a small segment.Meanwhile, the Citygate term market found its bottom and is back into bullish territory; this new outage won't help things. Just be glad it isn't Dec 1 as that NOAA 6-10 day would set this market afire.Demand rallied at PG&E, but is off at Socal Gas. Storage is strong at Socal and not at PG&E.

Power Fundamentals

Loads are off everywhere, falling off of cooling temperatures.The MidC I-5 corridor chilled in the mid-60s; Burbank dropped 11 degrees to 80. Billings (where'd this come from?) reached a Sep 30 high of 44 degrees, contrast that with Denver's 83. And those two cities are just 300 miles apart.Not only are temperatures falling, the forecasts, day-on-day, are falling too. This report compares the most recent hourly against three days (Friday's).And all of this cooling is going to set some new ten-year lows. The above is the "Range" report which shows the ten-year highs and lows around the current forecast and the ten-year average. Nothing bullish in either set of plots.It's a good time to step back and take in the big picture, with the expiration of September. The above highlights the Degree Day anomalies by city and hub and demonstrates what a bust last month truly was.PV2 isn't off yet, but it will be shortly; all the other nukes are running at 100%.Gas nominations at SP have cratered while rallying at NP.  Here is a detailed look...And ISO gas outages soared over the weekend, and most of that was forced, not planned:Large blocks of units are offline which explains those SP nom drops.NP enjoyed a large block of wind energy while the MidC enjoyed a calm and windless day on Sunday.Here's a change, California is getting some rain. Not much, but more than the state has seen since April.The Golden State's reservoirs are above normal; if that El Nino occurs things will get sloppy wet next spring. BC Hydro's reservoirs are below normal reflecting BPA's drafting to meet summer loads. The US northwest reservoirs are precisely at normal.Shasta discharge is above average as is the Pit; most other production rivers are well below normal all of which means ISO hydro energy is falling ...We'd suggest much of that decline is a result of those negative DD anomalies pointed out above; the ISO didn't need the energy but the state does covet the water.The MidC gets more than a smattering of precip; in Seattle, it rains nearly every day. More importantly, in the production regions of Spokane and Kalispell, there is almost an inch on its way, and it is only first two weeks of October.Coulee production is down; its reservoir is nearly full.Flows at the International Border are off explaining why Coulee is off.The Peace is mostly idling away; there isn't any load in BC and not much energy is flowing southbound on the Northern Intertie. These charts will look a bit different in two weeks, once those rains hit and make their way into the rivers.Today is STP Monday and the River Forecast Center's 10 Day offers little "TELL". Mostly, the ten-day matches last Monday's STP, but we still think the RFC will need to make some dramatic changes in the backend of its forecast.The above is a plot of monthly energy (aMW) for all the STP stations with generation. The red column is last week's forecast; the others are the actual energy by year since 2001.We believe bumps are in store in Dec; that month is projected to become the tightest in the last twenty. Doubt it.Now we are just twelve days from the DC going to zero; it is showing up in the hourly TTC reports. Also, took note of a new AC outage in January.The Path26 outage is over, not that it ever mattered; flows didn't change when it was derated and didn't change when that expired. Note the dearth of flows on the Northern Intertie; nothing is going north or south. The DC had a massive swing yesterday; one hour touched TTC then it collapsed. The AC shrugged off its derate; flows didn't change there, either. Palo cut flows to the ISO, surprised given falling loads and rising prices.

Conclusions

These gas outages in Socal are spooky; we're spooked, so should you. LA still has another month of potential Santa Ana, but in this forecast, there is no sign of such. The Northwest rains may rain on that Northwest rally and, if they build, that "may" will become "will."  

Change Mid-C

This weekly report, Change, summarizes how the week that just ended compares to both last week, and the same week a year ago.  Through 1000 change records, we have filtered down to those that we found most relevant. [render_email_report name="Change - MidC" date="2018-09-29"]

Thursday’s WECC Update

Good Morning,Every morning, when it's my turn to blog (Monday and Thursdays, usually), I sometimes fear there may not be anything to report. That is never the case; there is always something changing in the wonderful world of power. Many of the changes are subtle, a creeping transition to a new world; others are rabidly rapid, like Socal's pipeline explosion last year. Yeah, that was one year ago on this coming Monday.How much havoc did that explosion wreak? All of those heat rates greater than 20k are explained by what happened a year ago. I'm not talking about SP15 heat rates, but MidC and Palo and NP15's (and Utah and Nevada and Colorado).  Or you could blame Aliso, but the nail in the coffin was the loss of that 500k import capacity. Some of that has been returned yet the system remains crippled.Speaking of amputees, it looks like Socal's injection days are about over:Both Aliso and Honcho are full leaving just Playa and Goleta with storage capacity, but those too must be nearly functionally full.Socal now has more gas in the ground than PG&E, yet the threat of a shortage lingers in the term pricing:All bullets are rallying off of the bottoms achieved during the August meltdowns. Speaking of meltdowns, check out BOM's collapse.Not entirely fair, given that most of the BOM was the Friday-Saturday package, but still, the move is remarkable given the lofty heights September once traded. Ouch, who bought those? Am guessing it was Genscape or GPS clients.Even Prompt, soon to be BOM, has burped, though less so at the Mighty MidC where long has not been wrong, but it soon may become sinful, but only if it rains hard and long. There are hints of change in the air ...The Northwest is either normal or cool and wet or normal; California is mostly normal both temp and precip-wise. Some of that AZ/NV heat has shifted east. Winter is coming and the Socal Citygate Nightwalkers are astirring. Hah, we'll need some frigid weather in LA before those monsters get over the wall.Northwest gas is firming, especially north of the border; both AECO and Kingsgate saw prices soar 30-40% in a week. California gas not so much, but San Juan is rallying.What's not rallying are California gas loads; these are mired in fiscal year lows at socal; nocal not so much, just about normal there.

Power Fundamentals

Power loads are up across the WECC; not because the weather is all that bullish, but incrementally more bullish than last week.What goes up must come down per someone's theory, and temperatures are falling across the WECC, even approaching ten-year lows at Burbank and Phoenix in the morning hours. This is just bearish; these don't drive heating degree days, they just wipe out the cooling degree days.And the change in the temperature forecasts are either neutral or bearish; Phoenix sees its outlook cooling versus a few days earlier.The odds of late season heat are slipping; it is still possible (look at the Range plots for Burbank). For now, its cool and the September degree day anomalies for California are coming in near-record bearish. No wonder BOM bombed.Hey! Here's a bullish nugget to chew on - PV2 is finally heading down for its refuel; we'd expect it to be at ZERO this weekend. Coincidentally, that 1200 MW is about equal to the demand destruction from cooling temperatures.Gas noms at both MidC and Palo remain strong and about average for California. Digging deeper, here are the unit-level noms:Mostly posted this to announce a new dashboard; hard to read for me.Gas outages remain low, that will change with the expiration of September.A becalmed day, yesterday, across the WECC; not only did it not blow, but solar was also off at both ZP and NP.

Hydro

We mentioned the subtleness of change in some of the fundies. Temps can swing violently, even from the 00Z to the 12Z; hydro is more of a slow crawl. One trend we're seeing is an increasingly wetter Northwest. Contrast today's precip forecast with Monday's:All stations about doubled in total precip over the next 14 days. Still not the massive events that will crush the MidC but its not zero, either.Even our friends in the Golden State will reap some rain; hardly a trace but its the first since spring.A not subtle change are flows on the Columbia at the US border; these are up 30% (20kcfs) in a week. Some of that largesse is going through the turbines, the rest into the reservoir:Coulee's reservoir is just 1.4 feet from its ten-year high; BPA has bullets should they need them. But, alas, they don't need them, they needed those bullets on Aug 5 when MidC cleared 70k heat rates, but no bullets were fired then. Still wondering why the feds didn't draft Coulee another five feet? How easy would it be to refill today by buying those $25s?The Lower Columbia has seen a surge in energy production while the Lower Snake is sideways.Inflows to Coulee are not just up at the border, pretty much most stations are seeing modest rallies. With above normal precip, those modest bumps may become material.Meanwhile, our other friends in Portland, the guys, and gals running the NWRFC, got bullish on the MidC last Monday. They cut energy across their 120-day forecast window. Now our Portlandia pals are essentially predicting the tightest Oct-Jan water in twenty years. LOL!And they're cutting the front, too.And they're neighbors, our friends at BPA, also got out their scissors and cut the DC to zero a couple of days earlier than the last forecast. Now the line's outage starts on Oct 13, just two short weeks away. So what's the term market do? It rallies Oct.Flows from Canada switched direction, and now energy is pouring across the wall-less border like a  horde of angry MS13 migrants.

Conclusions

Nothing to get excited, or depressed, over. We still like buying the spreads to MidC, we think the wet weather and accelerated DC outage will take its toll, but you have a week or two before any of that comes into play. Plus, the south is getting more bearish, so we'd probably hold off until next week on any big plays.