Market Commentary

Mid-Week Update

Good morning,

 

Sad news out of the Northwest where a University of Washington professor declared the northern Pacific Ocean blob dead as of the 24th of December.

October Blob:

December 24th Blob:

To summarize the article, stormy, windy weather generated action on the surface of the ocean to mix colder water from greater depths and essentially wiped out whatever sea-surface anomalies that were present in the previous two months.

If you think the blob was the cause of the warmer than normal start to the water year, then maybe its death will bring an increase in loads in the coming months.  Either way, RIP blob.

NOAA Forecast Images

The entire West Coast should see above normal temps for all days between 6 and 14, but it will be especially warm in Southern California in the latter part of the forecast.  The Four Corners region will move from below normal to nearly average during the same span of time.

Precipitation Forecast

The mountains are forecasting bare for the foreseeable future, especially the Cascades where there is a 60%+ chance of below-normal precip.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV DA showed $8 of congestion at their peak for the 26th and $9 for the 27th.  SP-NP were identical on the 26th and showed $2 for the 27th.

Futures

After rallying $4 on the 26th, crude fell back to $45.15 yesterday.  December is on pace to show a monthly average $7.50 lower than November, and a $21 difference when comparing the two month’s peaks.

Gas futures jumped $0.14 to $3.64 after falling as low as $3.46 on the 24th.  Despite closing at $3.64, gas had dropped as low as $3.40 by mid-day.

Gas Storage

Jackson Prairie storage fell to -86 MMCF yesterday, down from -33 MMCF the day before, and a far cry from the 139 MMCF injection we saw on the 23rd.  Despite the consecutive days of withdrawals, Jackson Prairie managed a positive week on average.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Arrow is sitting 15′ below last year on the same date, that’s a 3′ increase over last week’s mark.  Hungry Horse is moving in the direction after falling another foot below last year’s level to bring the total difference to 2′.

Chief Joe and Duncan show up as the only two reservoirs with more than a foot higher in elevation compared to last year.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

The past week brought snow cover to much of the west including a vast amount of low-level areas.  The Cascades saw the largest improvement in snowpack as most stations are now measuring in the 75%-90% range compared to 50%-75% last week.  We could see the low-level snow disappear over the weekend as a warm front passes through, albeit quickly.

Snow Depth Summary

Most stations added more than an inch of snowpack over the last week, but Bonneville led the way with 2.34″, including just under an inch in the past three days.

Mid-C as an aggregate added 1.4″ over the past week.

Snow Depth Chart

Spokane was once nearly 50% from average during the first week of December, but a series of snowstorms over the past two weeks has let the basin climb its way back to normal.  The basin is also ahead of where it was on the same day last year, despite the slow start.  This, of course, could be wiped out quickly if the dry forecast looming on the Northwest hold true.

Water Supply Charts

This is a peak at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates.  The convergence we saw between Ansergy and the RFC for Apr-Sep in The Dalles has moved in the opposite direction over the past week.

 

Demand

 

Mid-C Demand

Seattle will be almost balmy this weekend as temps are set to top out at 50, six degrees above normal and just a degree from setting a new 10-year high.  Most hours project above normal through next week until reaching the 5th where we could see overnight temps fall below freezing at 31 degrees, eight from normal.

As the weather cooled off yesterday, loads moved in the opposite direction.  Demand was up 500 MW day-on-day at their peak, though that still equated to a 600 MW drop week-on-week.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was up 120 MW at its peak yesterday compared to Wednesday.  Much like Mid-C, this was 600 WM short of the levels we saw a week ago.

San Jose stays close to the normal line, at least for daily highs, through the rest of the year, but starts to deviate thereafter.  The 3rd could see the area top out at 60 while lows remain comfortably above the 40-degree mark.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand increased more than NP or Mid-C as there was more than 400 MW growth at its peak, day-on-day.  Week-on-week demand was down 400 MW as well, however.

No 80-degree highs are in this week’s Burbank forecast, but consecutive 70-degree days are in store on the 2nd and 3rd.  Tomorrow’s low of 39 looks like the coolest over the next two weeks.

PV Demand

Once again, the Southwest is getting the brunt of winter weather in the west, at least in terms of deviation from normal.  Daily lows will fall into the mid to low 30’s for the next week, each coming in at roughly 10 degrees from average.  Highs will fail to top the 60-degree mark in the meantime as well.  The second-half of the forecast looks much warmer as the 7th may see a return of 70-degree highs.

Nuke Status

All six nukes remain generating at 100% capacity.

Renewables

SP-15 solar jumped to 5,100 MW on Wednesday, the first 5,000+ MW generation day in nearly two weeks.  Wind was able to tack on more than 2,000 MW in most hours as well, creating a lucrative renewable day for SP.

Mid-C wind has been subdued following the 20th’s 2,600 MW peak generation.  Yesterday topped out at just over 500 MW, while Christmas day failed to see even 30 MW hours.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO Gas outages were comparatively flat yesterday after recording a 130 MW drop.  Contrast that to the 1,000+ MW swings we saw last week.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

COI is holding TTC at 4,150 MW until 1700 tomorrow, that’s up from 3,850 that was projected as of last week.  Note the extreme drop that’s slated for the 7th when TTC falls to 3,365 MW.

NOB remains unchanged in the most recent projections.

 

 

 

Have a great day,

 

William

APT – MidC Front

Good Morning,

Given the restoration of Sumas, mostly, and a big water rally, let’s see how the MidC near-term markets have fared.

We filtered APT on MidC and the prompt months and rolls; we’ll comment in the order above.

This isn’t BOM, its BOW, and barely that, after all, it’s the 26th, but still worthy of a look. The market seems reasonably priced for both HR and PP, but it will grow colder and loads will rally:

Not as cold as the early Dec event, then Seattle posted high 20s, now the Emerald City won’t bust 35 degrees. Still, its colder and we’d buy this.

More reasonable prices in Jan, soon to be BOM. The heat rate is still cheap given a low water year and constraints at Sumas; the PP isn’t though which suggests Sumas is still commanding a significant Jan premium.  Note the soaring temperatures in Seattle following New Year’s day; its hard to like Jan too much. The biggest fear in carrying length is gas – if you trade it as heat rate  – go long. If you are trading just power, I will short it because I think Sumas has another $1.00 to fall.

The roll is back to reality, if anything it is rich, PP-wise, and cheap HR-wise. No real thought here, the trade was buying the roll at $-24 and selling it at $6.00 for a handy $300k gain per piece. Assuming you did the standard ten piece package, a cool $3 mill bouncing around in your book.

Feb’s still pricey and not just because of gas; the heat rate is in the one-year range. I get this if you believe the NWRFC’s forecasts, but I don’t. I think there will be another gig or two of hydro added over the next five weeks and Feb will be a trainwreck. SELL

The roll’s day in the sun has turned from dusk to night; now the only thing interesting is shorting the heat rate roll as it is at a contract high.

March, the Poor Man’s Winter. March has been a widowmaker in the past; a few years back (2017) saw record flows – over 500 kcfs at Portland OR. So it can be wet or dry, it can also get very cold or not. More than likely, Coulee isn’t going to see much drafting this winter, at least not until April. After all, the reservoir is already seven feet below normal. March could be a sleeper, assuming the northwest doesn’t acquire a pile of low-level snow over the next couple of month,  Still, its priced towards the high side on PP and fairly priced HR-wise; we just can’t make a case to do anything with it and we’ll… PASS

Cheap roll; Feb still packing some premiums, probably from the Sumas hangover. If that gas hub doesn’t rally off of this modest cold weather, or if Westcoast restores full capacity, this roll is poised to pop $5-10. Buy, or watch cash and study weather. If Friday’s Next Day market yawns through this cold, and the forecast grows warmer, definitely buy this roll.

Here’s another widow-maker, April that is. This is the draft month, the period where Coulee must be pulled to its flood control target. We doubt the reservoir will get below 1240′ this year; it may not even draft to 1250′. That is bullish for April, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a mountain of natural river water flowing into the Pacific. It all comes down to temperature, and we know nothing about that today; we only see the volume, and that is about 90% of normal. That leaves us with fading anomalies, and this is rich both HR and PP – SHORT

The roll is uninteresting; it’s priced about as reasonable as it will get. PASS

There seems to be a slight change in the weather. If you believe the world is getting warmer (it is, unless you live on another planet) than runoff should start earlier, which is what we’ve seen lately. That means May is the new June and will typically bear the brunt of snowmelt-driven natural river flows. Another factor, low draft, which means not as much room to refill, and May starts looking uglier than its price would suggest. Top off all of that with May priced high PP and fair HR and this is a strong candidate for SELLING.

We shorted May and April so will pass on the roll, though it is more cheap than not, plot-wise.

June is rich in PP and fair in HR but it’s a dry year and growing dryer, plus June is the new July, and you get all the PV and SP long call options by owning this. BUY

The roll’s rich, but we already bought it on legs and will buy it outright.

July is the new July, and it’s rich in every sense of the word, but why wouldn’t it be? Socal couldn’t fix their untied shoes, and their pipes won’t be any better this summer than last. What happens to the MidC when Citygate clears $30? This is the poor man’s way to play SP15, plus its a dry year. BUY

Roll this roll into a joint and smoke it. It’s rich and tasty, we’re long both June and July, why clutter up the book with a roll?

 

WECC Update – Part One of Two

Good Morning and Happy Holidays,

Hard to believe many of you are working today, but I am and there are some new developments to consider. Let’s start with the weather – where would we bloggers be without weather to feed our blog fodder?

Earlier in the holiday break we saw both the 6-10 day and 8-14 post cold anomalies; now just the 6-10 day has them. It’s cold in Four Corners and mildly cool everywhere else in the WECC. The sky’s not falling with this forecast but demand will rally across the WECC and Socal Citygate will get another test.

With the high-pressure cold comes dry…

Seems the MidC wet trend is broken, let’s see what that cumulative impact has done to the snow and precip anomalies:

The MidC went from the high 50s (SWE % of Normal) to 92%, but now its poised to start dropping right in front of the first Flood Control release (Jan 10? – the date’s not published yet). Still, we’d guess the Apr-Aug TDA posts around an 88 given the draught:

What  that suggests is minimal drafting in the Northwest which is bullish for Feb-March; the reservoirs already have holes:

Mica is at a 10-year low; Coulee is seven feet behind last year but filling. Things are still tight, water-wise, but not in gasland; in that world things have turned a bit bearish.

Sumas is now trading $2.00 under Citygate and we doubt the hub sees double digits any time soon, or at least not until Westcoast blows up its pipe again. Citygate (Socal) is interesting, the forecasts are showing Burbank toying with a 30 handle for lows:

38 degrees over the weekend, that is colder than the last cold event and we should see Sendout soar, we already are!

Check out the gapping going down in Socal Gas’s system;  total sendout is up 900 MMCF in a week and only a few days last winter had higher demand, and it is growing colder. Back to the Sumas debacle; we don’t see how it can rally hard without constraints on imports and we’re not seeing big ones any longer.

Sure, the pipe isn’t flowing at the same levels as last year, we’re still short about 400 MMCF at Station 4 which leaves Sumas 200 short. That is kind of bullish, right, until you realize that Enbridge has the capacity to fill the pipe and will fill it should demand demand the gas. In other words, there is a 200 MMCF long put at Sumas should things grow bullish.

Another bearish bullet in the long’s back are the storage levels at Jackson Prairie:

You’d expect JP to have pulled hard during the Westcoast curtailments but you’d be wrong. Total storage is higher today than the same day last year. Mist pulled, but not JP. Two reasons for this:

  1. It was never that cold
  2. The Northwest utes never ran their Sumas-based gas turbines

Regarding #1 – not that cold – check out these December cumulative degree day anomalies:

Every station in our WECC group is below normal, degree day-wise. Every station. So, the Northwest dodged a massive bullet by sheer luck and provident prudence.

These power demand plots make you think everyone left the west, but the deltas are a biz day versus Christmas so somewhat meaningless, though interesting that the MidC’s demand was almost equal to last Tuesday.

Power demand for gas is down in California and sideways everywhere else; reflective of the warm weather and holiday loads. These should rally as the 6-10 cold descends upon the coastal load centers.

Recall point #2 above – Sumas-based turbines curtailed. Well, that’s one for the history books, now all of them are running at full capacity, even though the power really isn’t needed. I guess its payback time, now the turbines will run while the reservoirs fill.

One surprise gift in Santa’s bag was a whole lot of wind energy; check out NP, it’s combined renewables nearly doubled on hour 14, SP was blustery and bearish, too; so was the MidC.

Coulee discharge approached a ten-year low for this  time of the year; not that inflows are that low, it’s because the water is refilling the reservoirs.

Well, let’s restate that- some of the inflows are not that low; the flows on the Columbia at the US border tanked over the last couple of days.

The feds published the STP on Monday which caught us by surprise; we weren’t sure if they were on shut-down furloughs, I guess not. Monday’s numbers were also a bit surprising, I think their 120 day forecast is too low. Recall, the MidC’s SWE anomaly is 92% and the precip is the same. So how does the NWRFC get to a record low 120 day forecast? I’d say their numbers are short 1-2 gigs of energy and will be revised upwards.

Meanwhile, they are revising downward, at least in their 10-day forecasts. I don’t get this, either; the weather is growing colder. BPA is going to resume drafting to serve loads, so will BC Hydro. Maybe someone spiked the eggnog on Monday?

The AC has a small uprate and in a few weeks a material derate; no changes on the DC.

Energy flowed north, into Canada on the Northern Intertie. Flows into the ISO dropped across all major interties. Both of these changes reflect the overall bearishness of the recent cash markets.

Conclusions

I’m bullish ISO, especially SP, given the cold weather and continued Citygate issues. It is really hard to get bullish the MidC, though the dry weather will pull the anomalies back down, but they’ll also cut the amount of water drafted for flood control. More on market sentiment in a post to follow.

STP Update

 

What’s a better Christmas present than a fresh STP update?

 

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

  • December – Down 1,895 aMW
  • January – Down 172 aMW
  • February – Down 96 aMW
  • March – Down 385 aMW
  • April – Up 998 aMW

This week’s update is highlighted by a massive 1,895 aMW reduction in December (though it comes with only a week remaining).  The 1,895 aMW decrease places the month well below each of the previous four forecasts.

January through March also saw cuts to their forecast, but all came at comparatively muted levels as March’s 385 aMW reduction topped the scale among the three forecasts.  April added back 998 aMW after last week’s 2,000 aMW cut.  Not to say we told you so, but Ansergy hinted that last week’s heavy cut seemed premature.

Daily

December fell off the charts immediately as the 25th showed up with a 2,700 aMW reduction, and the difference peaked again on the 31st at 2,200 aMW.  January through February held a 100-200 aMW difference through the entirety of each month, while the beginning of March introduced progressively larger differences, eventually leading to a 550 aMW difference by the 31st.  April brought immediate gains, peaking at 1,200 aMW by the 3rd, and maintained smaller differences through the forecast.

Year on Year

Cuts to December’s forecast has left the month mostly average compared to the rest of this century.  January through March, on the other hand, continue to pace behind their peers, while April shows the largest difference between its forecast and some of the heavy outliers (particularly 2018).

 

William

Ansergy’s Holiday Schedule

Greetings,

Here is our schedule for the coming holidays.

Christmas

  • Monday, December 24 – holiday
  • Tuesday, December 25 – holiday
  • Wednesday, December 26 – Working – WECC Update
  • Thursday, December 27 – Working – STP update, Change Reports
  • Friday, December 28 – Working – WECC Update

NewYear’s

  • Monday, December 31 – holiday
  • Tuesday, January 1 – holiday
  • Wednesday, January 2 – Working – WECC Update
  • Thursday, January 3 – Working – STP update, Change Reports
  • Friday, January 4 – Working – WECC Update

We will be monitoring emails and skype; if something comes up, or you need our assistance, drop us a note. Mike will be posting to Public Chat throughout the holidays.

Happy Holidays

 

WECC Update – Part Two of Two

Good Morning,

We left off our first post a shade on the bullish side, driven by colder weather. Like all sentiments, the buy/sell decision needs to be relative to market price. Today, we’ll look at the front of the curve, BOM and Prompt. The trades to be discussed today are in the following APT order.

Each subsequent chart can be accessed by clicking the chart icon to the far right. You can also pull them down directly from the TradeRank reports.

First up, the spread between NP and MidC for BOM. This was cheap during the pipeline / Sumas crisis, now its flipped to NP premium by nearly $10. Given Sumas is still trading premium to PG&E citygate the spread feels rich. Offsetting that sentiment are the increased flows into Sumas at the US border; nevertheless, a cold event in the Northwest could be more bullish than a cold event at NP. This is BOM, just ten days left; we’d take out a flyer and SELL the spread.

This spreads Palo against MidC, a dubious virtual given no direct transmission between the two, but for those creative gamblers its worthy of a look. This was dirt cheap while Sumas was on life support, now it is just cheap but, for the same reasons as NP, we’d sell it (Sell Palo, buy MidC).

NP’s Dec heat rate was silly cheap a few weeks back, it has rallied off of that, but we’d suggest there is more room to move up. With cold weather approaching, we are BUYERS.

The Palo heat rate has fully recovered, the price is still above the one year average, and we aren’t so bullish we’d go long everywhere.  PASS.

Cheapish heat rate, modest PP that just posted a reversal of a two-week long slide … on the cold weather, and going into a long weekend… BUY

When trading off of cash, which is what we’d be doing by buying BOM off of cold, you may as well do the same thing in the Prompt, especially when it is the 20th of the month. So, all of those Dec sentiments … press Repeat.

If we sold the BOM NP-MC, we probably wouldn’t do the same with Jan. Our fear here is water in the Northwest. BPA will begin drafting again to serve the incremental cold-driven load, that will leave Jan longer than otherwise. Plus, if the cold is a headfake, we’d not want a book too directional over the multi-holiday span, plus liquidity will be an issue.  BUY

The spread’s heat rate is more pricey than not, but the power price is still on the cheap side. Plus, PV sees massive LMP congestion into SP … SELL

We already said we’d mimic our Prompt with the BOM sentiment, but let’s look at the rolls. The MidC PROMP|BOM is now at a contract high – HUH? Where this was trading $-30 a month ago, now Jan is premium. Makes no sense in front of a cold forecast… We’d short this for size.

The NP never got stupid-priced like MidC because PG&E Citygate isn’t Sumas; still, the roll is at a contract high, and Sacto and its minions will be cold over the holidays… SELL

Why not, sell this roll too off of problems in the ISO over the holidays.

WECC Update – Part One of Two

Good Morning,

The news de jour is the west has been growing colder for a week straight; now it’s growing dryer, too.

Mostly the interior, but the anomaly spills into the load-center coastal regions. Power and gas loads will be remarkably higher throughout BOM and possibly spill into Jan.

Dyer, too, after three weeks of above average precip, now the NW and Cal have a negative anomaly. Makes sense, high-pressure cold blocks the storms; rare you get both wet and cold. Both forecasts are bullish, though it’s the demand we’re more interested in.

For the record, these hourlies are not “cold,” they are just colder, but the trend is to walk down the temperatures and should that  continue, then it may just get cold. Don’t expect panic; the system is healthier today than three weeks earlier. The warm wet allowed both gas and hydro storage to recharge, plus the Northwest is no longer threatened by the Westcoast pipeline explosion impacts. WEI will increase flows as needed; if it gets bitter cold, the pipe will flow 100%.

Spot gas is off but still relatively strong; recall, last year on the same day Sumas had $2.00 handle; almost every hub is $1.00 or higher than last year. With cold, these spot prices may move yet higher, at least the ones in California.

Citygate term markets found a bottom, at least a temporary one, but we’d suggest that small bump yesterday was more Nymex-driven that Socal.

Sumas mostly just continued its slide back to reality; the market has the Feb contract beneath Henry, a sign pointing to a complete return of Westcoast’s capacity. That said, cold weather will support the prices, then they’ll slide more until basis reverts to its mean.

Hey, here’s a rally! LMP spreads against SP blew out over the last few days at all three points. Mostly, this is a reflection of the gas spreads; there is nothing bullish going on inside of SP.

Socal’s Sendout has cratered on those exceptionally warm temperatures; interesting, because PG&E’s loads are up and soon to spike back to the levels we saw earlier this month.

The above plot is a new dashboard, a chart of the last 30 days of LDC demand by power hub. Ansergy has mapped all of the LDCs inside a power hub and aggregated their gas nominations. This data is a close as you’ll get to actual gas demand, at least outside of the two Cal LDCs.  PG&E’s demand has rallied, MidC’s tanked and is now sideways, same with Socal.

Power demand at the four traded hubs is either sideways (SP, NP, PV) or in a free fall – MidC. Cold weather should change that.

The MidC’s wind has been consistently strong further weakening its cash markets. California’s solar has been volatile due to the big storms systems that have blown across the state.

Check out the changes to the SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) anomalies at the MidC. A week ago, the hub-composite was 70%, now it’s in the high 80s. Those storms pushed up the NWRFC’s water supply forecasts a bit. As of yesterday, about 25% of the Northwest’s snow pillows were above normal; a week ago maybe 5% were.

We also took note of the drops in California; NP15’s composite snow anomalies were above normal two weeks earlier, now they’re in the 80s. El Nino-like water … not yet, anyways.

We’ll be closely watching these numbers over the holiday; the first flood control guidance is released around Jan 10 using the TDA Apr-Aug forecast. Given a drying trend, that forecast may be in the low 90s which would suggest a modest draft into the 1240s at Coulee.

Energy from that large project has been cut, much of the water coming into Coulee is refilling the reservoir. We’d expect discharge to pick up as BPA drafts to serve load next week. The NWRFC doesn’t see that, though.

Just two days after releasing its weekly STP, the agency has cut its December flows across all days in its 10-Day. We’d expect just the opposite, a strong rally as the water is used to meet incremental cold-driven power demand.

A parting comment on this week’s STP – it’s too low. These forecasts are suggestive of a near-record draught, but that isn’t what we saw in the current snow anomalies. The Northwest is below average, but not by much, and we expect the Feb-April forecasts to see some significant upward restatements.

BC exported energy in a big way at MidC yesterday which was surprising given relative weak fundamentals at the hub. Was there an outage?

Conclusions

Cold, but not Siberian-like, yet the trend has been a colder outlook for seven straight days. Imagine how cold it would be if that trend continued another seven days? A more bullish near-term outlook, coupled with relatively low market prices, has us believing length is the position de jour. More on that in the next post.

 

 

 

Mid-Week Update

Good morning,

 

NOAA Forecast Images

While the Easter-half of the country looks like they will be basking in a warmer than normal Christmas, the WECC is set for another cool down, especially the Great Basin and the Sierra Nevada.  The week following Christmas may be even cooler as the blue blog on Winter flows north into Mid-C to ring in the New Year.

Precipitation Forecast

Look for heavy precip stretching from the Southern Cascades to the Eastern edge of the Rockies as we move toward Christmas.  The rest of the west projects a wetter than normal precip total in over days 6-10, while the latter half of the forecast could revert to normal.  The real question is whether this precip will coincide with cool enough temps to make a noticeable impact on snowpack.

LMP Spreads

SP-PV DA prices have both come off considerably over the past week and are both showing similar peaks as well.  The 17th had a difference of just $3 at $74 and $71 respectively.  SP-NP showed a similar relationship with the same $74 and $71 prices on the 17th, though NP has fallen off a bit since.

Futures

Crude is desperately searching for its floor as it dropped another $2.20 yesterday and is now marking consecutive days under $50.  Crude managed a $1.00 gain by mid-day but that quickly evaporated as prices fell more than $3.00 in just a few hours.

Gas was up $0.21 to $3.72 yesterday, bucking the downward trend that was started on the 10th.

West Term Gas Prices

How low can it go?  January Sumas dropped $1.24 week-on-week and $0.55 day-on-day.  A mild start to the winter isn’t helping prices and without a significant cooldown in the forecast, that may not change significantly.

February had an even more dramatic change (at least in terms of percentages) as prices fell $1.11 week-on-week, or 23%.

Citygate is in the midst of its own freefall with prices dropping more than $2.50 week-on-week for January and $1.45 for February.

Gas Storage

It was mentioned in chat last night, but with Jackson Prairie’s 139 MMCF injection yesterday, the site topped any single-day injection from all of last winter.  Total storage is more than 1,400 MMCF higher than each of the last three years on the same date and roughly equivalent to what we saw in 2014.

Spot Gas

Sumas spot fell $0.39 day-on-day yesterday, relatively mild to what we saw last week, but still a significant drop.  AECO was the big mover in the other direction as it added $0.31 to its price after finishing at $1.69.

Sumas spot has nearly returned to a pre-explosion price.

Hydro

 

PNW Reservoirs

Arrow has shed roughly 4.5′ since the 9th and has dropped below average for the first time in over a year.  The reservoir is now 12′ lower than it was on the same date last year.

Hungry Horse dropped below the average line for the first time since May, though its decrease is much more gradual than Arrow.  Hungry Horse is only a foot lower than it was last year, not quite the anomaly that we see in Arrow.

Week-on-Week Snow Anomaly

While most of the low-level snow has melted (thanks to warm temps and rain), the higher elevated mountains were just cold enough to add significant snowpack.  The Cascades were able to cross the 50% of normal barrier while the Idaho and Montana Rockies are approaching 80% territory.  We could see normal levels approaching soon if the forecasted precip manages to hold true this week.

Snow Depth Summary

Wash West and Priest Rapids checked in with the largest week-on-week increase — each with over 2.5″.  Looking closer at the columns you may notice the totals fluctuating daily, showing how fragile the freezing level has been in these Mid-C storms.

Mid-C as an aggregate added 1.2″ over the past week.

Snow Depth Chart

Grand Coulee added enough snowpack over the past week to briefly cross 2018, though a warm day was enough to wipe out most gains.  Just to illustrate how an early-season lack of snowfall isn’t a harbinger of the rest of winter, I’ve added 2010 to the chart.  Notice as of today, 2010 would be leading both 2019 and 2018.

Water Supply Charts

This is a peak at the difference between Ansergy and the RFC water supply estimates.  We are seeing some convergence between Ansergy and the RFC for Apr-Sep in The Dalles.

 

Demand

 

Mid-C Demand

Christmas should mark the end of consistent above-normal hourly temps for Seattle, but until then we could see a variance of up to 8 degrees on the 10th with a balmy high of 51.  There isn’t a single hour of freezing temps in the current forecast.

Not surprisingly, Portland will be even warmer as the 20th shows a high of 54, ten degrees above normal.  Temps fail to drop below freezing in Portland as well.

Loads were off close to 200 MW yesterday and were down more than 2,000 MW week-on-week as mild temps blanketed the Northwest.

NP 15 Demand

NP peak demand was up slightly yesterday compared to Monday but remained well below last week.  With mild temps in store for San Jose (highs in the 60’s through the 24th, and nightly lows consistently above 45), loads may stay in this range for another week at least.

Sacramento is holding onto several highs in the 60’s as well, though one day over the next 14 managed a sub-40 forecasted low.

SP-15 Demand

SP peak demand was mostly flat yesterday, maybe increasing 50 MW day-on-day.  There wasn’t much of a difference week-on-week either as just 100 MW made up the difference by most measurements.

All eyes are on Burbank’s impressive high of 82 on the 20th, 21 degrees above the previous 10-year high.  With lows in the 50’s, there isn’t much to drive demand this week.

The deserts are slightly cooler but are still forecasting highs in the upper-70’s through Christmas.

PV Demand

Phoenix is projecting highs in the 70’s through the 24th before temps drop off a cliff, bringing a high of just 55 on the 26th.  Despite daily highs dropping next week, lows are above normal in most cases as temps fail to fall below the high-40s.

Nuke Status

With CGS back at 100%, all six nukes are generating at 100% capacity once again.

Renewables

SP-15 solar dropped to just 3,300 MW on Monday, off from 4,800+ MW we saw over the previous six days and well below the 5,000+ Mw we saw generated consistently the week prior.

Mid-C wind was back above 1,000 MW yesterday after being mired in some slow generation days since the 15th.  Still a far cry from the 2,600 MW hourly peak we saw on the 12th.

ISO Gas Outages

ISO Gas outages was up 300 MW yesterday, reaching a total of 3,811 MW.  Despite the day-on-day increase, total outages are still 1,600 MW short of the total from last Friday.

ISO Outage Unit Data

Mountainview Gen Sta. Unit 4 was the main culprit for the outage increase though several other stations also contributed.

Transmission

 

BPA TTC

COI marked two more changes this week as TTC runs 250 MW lower through 6 AM tomorrow.  Also note the large increase beginning on the 29th at 10 AM where TTC moves from 3,840 MW to 4,550 MW through the remainder of the Forecast.

NOB remains unchanged in the most recent projections.

 

 

 

Have a great day,

 

William

ENElyst | Ansergy

Greetings,

Ansergy will be sharing some insights into WECC markets on the ENElyst chat platform. The session will begin today at 12:00 PM PST.

You’ll need a login, click here to get complimentary access:

Sign in at https://chat.enelyst.com/

We’ll be discussing the status of WECC fundies and taking a look at a few trade ideas.

Cheers,

 

STP Update

Good Morning,

 

The following reports reflect the energy impact of the most recent NWRFC STP.

Monthly

Energy Scorecard:

  • December – Up 340 aMW
  • January – Up  368 aMW
  • February – Up  418 aMW
  • March – Up  247 aMW
  • April – Down 2,111 aMW

Increases across the board this week, albeit relatively modest in most cases.  December followed up last week’s addition with another 340 aMW tacked onto the forecast.  January had an almost equal 368 aMW increase, ending a two-week slide in the process.  February added 418 aMW and prevented the fourth-consecutive weekly decline in forecast.  March added a small 247 aMW jump to round out this week’s update.

APRIL NOTE: Though we only have data through the 16th, this is material, and bullish, change to that strip’s outlook – a cut of 2 gigs. We are less confident in their confidence; it’s so early in the water year to be making such drastic and draconian changes, especially in the face of the massive storm system that has already landed and will continue to pound the Northwest for another week.

Daily

December falls as far as 1,000 aMW behind last week’s forecast as of the 23rd, but make an even larger jump thereafter, climbing up to 1,400 aMW higher by the 26th.  January begins the month a few steps behind before maintaining a 500-700 aMW increase going into March, which, coincidentally, holds a similar pattern through the month as well.  April shows a massive drop to begin the month — 2,800 aMW as of the 3rd, though that tapers toward the end of the forecast.

Year on Year

This week’s update showed enough in the way of increases to at least look worth of being displayed on the same chart…save for April which fell further behind every year aside from 2010 and 2001.  With only half the month forecasted, it’s possible April could still see significant changes over the next couple weeks.

 

William